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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bhuvanarama who wrote (87208)	8/16/2004 2:15:45 AM
From: Drbob512	Respond to of 100058

bhuvanarama: I don't believe bond rates are not going to go higher in the next 6=12 mos, they are correcting right now after having spiked up a lot earlier this year. I don't see gold, oil, and commodities in a long term downtrend, but in LT uptrends with corrections along the way. I do believe that bond rates will go lower in a year or two and that they will go down according to the K Winter, but will go higher first due to the huge debt and budget deficit of the gov't. I think the deflationary period has started but that it will have bumps along the way, especially with the Fed fighting it by stimulus policies, infusing money supply. Also, commodity prices due to China's growth, which will slow down to 6-8%, will have some inflationary pressures from time to time on costs and hurt company profits. We will have many years of the K Winter, and probably the stock market will be down 2=3 yrs for every up year, and bond prices will be in downtrend for a year or so, and then will rally as deflation takes hold next year.