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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marcos who wrote (143200)	8/16/2004 4:53:04 AM
From: kumar	Respond to of 281500

stayed up a bit to see if there was anything coming in on Venezuela, nothing yet Oil Falls from Record as Chavez Survives 3 minutes ago LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices fell from fresh record highs on Monday as early reports of victory for Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in a referendum on his rule eased fears that unrest could upset the country's oil exports. U.S light crude oil for September fell 38 cents to $46.20 a barrel, down from an early peak of $46.91 a barrel which was the highest since the New York Mercantile Exchange launched oil futures 21 years ago. London Brent was down 43 cents at $43.45 a barrel. Prices fell after results released by Venezuelan electoral authorities with 94 percent of the vote counted showed Chavez survived a referendum to recall him. Energy markets have been worried about disruptions to oil exports if a disputed result sparked social unrest. Shipping sources had said shipments from Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest crude exporter were running smoothly. Analysts had warned if the president were to lose, pro-Chavez oil workers could disrupt production now estimated at 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd). "There are lots of concerns in the oil market now, like the Iraqi situation and OPEC (news - web sites)'s thin spare capacity, but for today the market is focusing on the Venezuela vote," said Tony Nunan, a manager at Mitsubishi Corp's international petroleum business. IRAQ WOES, OPEC HELPLESS Disruption to Iraqi oil flow hounded the market, with exports remained cut by about half to around 900,000 bpd, since the southern pipeline was attacked by saboteurs, and as a U.S. offensive against followers of cleric Moqtada al-Sadr spread to several cities. "The pipeline is not operating. We do not know when conditions would improve to re-open it," a South Oil Company official said on Monday. Oil is up more than $10 a barrel since the start of the year. In real terms, adjusted for inflation, prices are still well below 1980's peak of $80, following the Iranian revolution. But prices have surpassed those of 1974, the first oil shock, when crude averaged an inflation-adjusted $43 during the Arab oil embargo. While leading economies so far have managed to cope with higher prices, signs are emerging that rising energy costs are starting to hurt. Iran's OPEC governor said on Saturday that the OPEC cartel, which accounts for around half world oil exports, can do nothing to douse scorching prices as crude supply is already running well above demand. "It seems that prices will continue to go up without taking into consideration the basic elements of the market, supply and demand," Iran's Hossein Kazempour Ardebili said. "The current trend of prices stems from political and military developments." The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, due to meet next on September 15, is already pumping at a 25-year high of 30 million bpd, casting aside the restraint of official quotas. "If a calm political and military situation prevails in the market, the amount added to crude reserves will pressure the price," Kazempour said. Saudi Arabia is producing around 9.5 million bpd, against a quota of 8.45 million bpd, and is expected to reach near 10 million bpd in September.

To: marcos who wrote (143200)	8/16/2004 5:08:44 AM
From: GST	Respond to of 281500

Foreign policies can and do create hatred. The US has done precious little to consider the role played by our own foreign policy in alienating the world. We pay a very high price for that -- we pay in blood, and we make others pay in blood. Vietnam was a case in point. In Iraq, the policy was and is deeply flawed. As soon as Cheney began preaching unilateral regime change you could feel the rest of the world recoil from us -- and so they should. It is a miserable policy. We can do better -- and we must try to do better. We can do better -- much better. The same is true for Israel.