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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (19563)	8/18/2004 11:19:52 AM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78480

Spekulatius. Fwiw, I still have my few NSRGY shares; I'll re-look at CL. ------ Fwiw, I've bought a few shares of Par Pharmaceutical (PRX) today. The stock was written up in a Morningstar article on high rev. growers. And revenue growth is strong. At current price, that makes the p/sales ratio relatively low. In the past few years profit margins have been high, although they do seem to be coming down: 19.9%, 20.8%, 18.5%, and now Yahoo shows about 16%. Prior to those years the company showed losses. As might be expected the stock price in recent years has reflected the good performance, and maybe also the recent drop in roe. finance.yahoo.com It just seems to me, that PRX - with a current p/e of 10, a forward p/e of 13, strong revenue growth apparently continuing, and still very good profit margins - ought to sell at a higher price and multiple in future - IF current performance can be sustained. OTOH, I'm not knowledgeable about the generic drug business, and I wonder if it might be so that these companies come to market with a knock-off of a popular drug (e.g. PRX's Paxil "eqivalent" saw $77.3M last quarter, vs $0.9M the previous year.) to skim good profits only for a while. Then soon enough, sales ($) decrease while volume (pill quantity) stays high, and nobody makes any money on a now very inexpensive drug. Which means it's a race to develop & get approval for a continuing stream of going-off-patent drugs, else no sustainable sales or profits. Which, if so, means to me, generic drug companies maybe ought to be selling at quite low p/e's. Anybody here with an opinion to share now on PRX or related?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (19563)	8/19/2004 10:13:15 AM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78480

Spekulatius, fwiw, I'll add a little to my very few Nestle shares today.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (19563)	9/21/2004 12:09:41 AM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78480

Added a few more NSRGY as it hit my limit while i was out on vacation. Mostly bad new from consumer goods company (see CL and Unilever) seem to have dragged down Nestle stock as well. PE should be around 13 at current stock price of 57.5$, which is a bargin considering in the stellar balance sheet and the strong FCF.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (19563)	10/3/2013 11:34:01 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78480

NSRGY, KO, DE, COSWF - I had to sell my long held position in Nestle today. I have held those since 2003/2004 in a German brokerage account and that account was cancelled, because they don't do business with US persons any more. No German brokerage (that i know if will), so i had no choice but to sell the account down. I also held some KSB3.DE, HEN.DE and Nestle of course and pay LT taxes which sucks. The reason that german brokerages won't do business any more is that banks are getting more and more harassed by the IRS And who knows what else, if they have Customers living in the US. I saw this coming and contacted several German brokerage but none would want to have me. I have hoped that they would keep me as a grandfathered customer of more than 20 years, but no luck. I have pondered on what to do with the funds and decided that NSRGY is a little expensive to buy, so i settled on KO (which is also better dividend taxation wise) and instead of KSB.DE, i'll buy some DE. I started out with small buys today (KO@37.22$ and DE at 82.07$) and will buy more once the brokerage funds are transferred (valuations permitting). Also, unrelated to above, i bought back part of my sold down COSWF position. @19.1$I have changed my opinion on the latter, since i noticed that Exxon (via IMO sub) will be running operations, which in the long run will be good for COSWF (IMO's annual report presentation has some interesting remarks on that matter).