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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (34508)	8/18/2004 8:54:06 PM
From: Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206321

Leuffer has a worse track record than anyone on this board. Some of us have been right, then wrong. Some of have been wrong ,then right. Some have been right every time . But to my knowledge not one of us can match Leuffer --he has been wrong every time. Yes, many of his points are rational and true --but will their impact follow his scenario? He relies heavily on the past and implicitly the regression to the mean theory. He always smiles and makes sense by assuring all and sundry that prices will fall soon -- but he has been doing that for 4 solid years and has been consistently incorrect. His logic is seductive and that must be the only reason he holds a job --as he has cost his clients a fortune over the years --I guess no one cares --Frank

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (34508)	8/18/2004 9:27:40 PM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206321

I am glad I did not see who wrote the article until I finished with the conclusion that the author was an idiot. Take a look at OECD inventories WTF is this dodo talking about? eia.doe.gov

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (34508)	8/18/2004 10:06:02 PM
From: t4texas	Respond to of 206321

i read your posting, and i wondered about halfway through who had written that stuff. i should have known, i.e., fred again. fred wants to rationalize prices based on historical usa inventories. based on any charts i have seen from the eia and lately from don hays' guys, fred should stop claiming usa commercial crude oil inventories are high. in fact if one compares today's 293M bbl number with 8/13/2003,a year ago (near the low point of inventory storage in the past many, many years), that number was 283M bbl. based on the number of bbl the usa imports (about 10M bbl/day) the usa has added just one day's inventory in crude oil inventory in the past 12 months. fred is too old and apparently (conveniently) thinks the usa is the only big crude oil user in the world. his neurons seem to be stuck on about 1990 where the usa was the demand determinant. how fred omits china from the big demand determinant today is hard to mistake. india too. what was the statistic that came out a couple of days ago where china used 40% more oil in june than it used in the previous calendar year (or was it previous month?)? i would like someone to offer what fred means by this --"More, while strong economic growth has been the primary driver for the pickup in oil demand, UNREPORTED INVENTORY BUILDS have resulted in DEMAND being OVERSTATED." is there a secret unreported inventory that someone here can talk about? has fred found some government corruption or is he going a bit nuts? i won't even mention more than this sentence about the Many elephant fields fred says have been discovered recently.