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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (52395)	8/19/2004 1:32:05 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

picking at scab feels good, until it doesn't

To: LLCF who wrote (52395)	8/19/2004 3:52:41 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I noticed a few weeks ago when Ashcroft announced the Al-Qaeda plans for the Citigroup bldg etc the stock barely sold off. 9-11 was, as Rumsfeld would say, and unknown unknown, we didn't know what we didn't know. The market sold off on the surprise of an event that had not been priced into the market. Since the Japanese and Canadian elections went off without a hitch and the Olympics (so far) are safe, the odds of something this fall, are, in some people's minds increasing. Al-Qaeda wants the US and its staunch allies. This is, then, a known unknown. We know that we don't know something. I have noticed traders in other countries saying the US market is very pessimistic and hedge funds are doing a brisk trade arbing dual-listed stocks that trade strongly in, say Stockholm or Toronto, but where there are weak buyers in the US. Therefore, is the US market now having to 'price in' a fair chance of a 9-11 occurring? If so, how much would the market need to correct? I see quite a lot of analysis of a 'Wave 3 Down' forming among the TA traders, where the correction could occur over the next two weeks. What level Dow and Nasdaq will it take? Any takers? Dow 9000, Nasdaq 1700 to get us started?