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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (52405)	8/19/2004 5:48:11 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, 5 months ago, while touring NZ, we came across a bloke who was seeking votes for himself to be on the farming body [Federated Farmers I think]. While chatting to him for a while, I asked about the potential demise of farming profits due to the high NZ dollar. He said that contrary to what one would think, profits and prices are high and farmers were enjoying a great time. I was quite surprised but subsequent economic good news in NZ bears out his comments. The place seems to be going nuts. Especially in Auckland. Therefore, although I can't see that it can continue, it seems to be continuing, even as interest rates rise. Maybe it's Chinese maths and the number of Chinese coming here is minuscule compared with China, but big in NZ, turning Auckland into another Chinese city while bringing in a lot of money. I expect dead in the water. But so far, it's like the Great Financial Collapse of 2001; we're still waiting and there's no sign of it. POA is run by my old school and uni mate, Geoff Vazey, who's a good bloke [though he was quite big and sitting on the back of my BSA Bantam Major, we bottomed out over bumps] and has been running the show very well for going on a decade. I think Ports of Tauranga is also a good business, but don't know much about it. POA has lost market share to other ports, so Tauranga is perhaps doing better. I don't have an opinion on either really. I suppose Chinese can buy a LOT of things NZ sells, such as steel, wool, meat, milk, cheese, butter, trees, paper pulp, but I'd have thought production must be at a peak, so there's not a lot of room for growth. Imports have been high but those might slow [used cars from Japan, plus everything Made in China]. I'd have to go data digging. CDMA phone imports won't take much space in POA wharves. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (52405)	2/3/2005 5:13:07 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, a warning! Abandon NZ$ now. Fisher and Paykel Appliances [FPA] in trouble with imports too cheap for them to compete with. nzherald.co.nz CEO John Bongard is a cuzzy-bro [NZ is a small world]. Sanford Fishing said at their annual meeting that unless the NZ$ is down to US60c in 6 months, things won't be looking good. nzherald.co.nz That's only a sample of two, but they are reasonably representative of NZ's corporate world. I also gave a 'ditch QCOM' warning at about $42. [Though not being a trader, I'm holding - the long term prospects are very great and dividends are delicious] Uncle Al KBE is raising interest rates to boost Uncle Sam's currency and fighting the fed is not considered good for one's financial health. NZ$ interest rates can't be raised without panicking the population with their over-priced houses bought using other people's money. So I dare say we are heading for a NZ$ fall. NZ$ has gone from 40c to 70c in 3 years with a median sort of value around 55c - 60c over a longer period. Mqurice PS: Nevertheless, I have a weather eye on F&P Appliances as I have long admired them, their creativity and management. They were my best customer for 3 years [they increasingly swapped from Shell], but that was in the early 1990s. I'm out of date on their current situation.