Despite High Hopes, Democrats Face Uphill Fight for Senate
By Terry M. Neal
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Friday, August 20, 2004; 9:45 AM
Just two and a half months before voters go to the polls, the outlook for the U.S. Senate remains as muddled as ever, with both political parties proclaiming an edge in the battle for control of the upper chamber of Congress.
Republicans now hold a 51-48 advantage over Democrats in the Senate. The Senate has one independent, James M. Jeffords of Vermont, a former Republican who votes mostly with the Democrats. Of the 34 seats up for grabs this year, 15 are currently held by Republicans and 19 by Democrats, and only about a quarter of the total are considered truly competitive.
Democrats say they've recruited a strong slate of candidates, and that, combined with Bush-fatigue and a general sense among voters that the nation is going in the wrong direction, creates a positive climate for them in November. In an Associated Press poll taken earlier this month, 59 percent of Americans said the nation is moving in the wrong direction -- not a good sign for the party holding power.
Republicans counter that Democrats have more seats to defend, and that most of those seats are in Bush-friendly, GOP-dominated states.
In fact, all eight of the most competitive senate races this year are in states Bush won in 2000. And the consensus among both the parties and nonpartisan analysts is that five states are definite toss-ups: Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana and Oklahoma. North Carolina, South Dakota and South Carolina are also often cited as too difficult to call.
Republican Party officials, who did not want to be named so they could speak more freely about their prospective candidates, assert -- and the analysts agree -- that they have at least an outside chance to knock off Democratic incumbents in Washington, Wisconsin and California. Democratic officials, who also did not want to be named for the same reason, argue that their best chances for a GOP-incumbent upset are in Pennsylvania and Missouri.
The one thing on which everyone seems to agree is that at least two states will almost assuredly switch parties. Most Democrats inside the Beltway will privately acknowledge that the Georgia seat currently held by retiring Zell Miller will go to Republican candidate Johnny Isakson. And most Republicans privately acknowledge that the seat currently held by retiring Republican Peter Fitzgerald is likely to go to Democrat Barack Obama.
Republicans are delighted about their prospects of holding on to the majority, arguing that the best possible general election candidates emerged from several tense intra-party squabbles this summer.
The Democratic officials are crowing about their chances to pick up a net gain of two seats, which would bring the GOP to 49 seats and give the Democrats a tenuous majority. Nonpartisan analysts agree this is possible, but difficult. Despite the stellar recruiting efforts of the Democrats, it remains a difficult challenge to take back the Senate this year, particularly because so many races are in the South. For the Democrats to be successful, they'll probably need to win three of the southern states, plus hold South Dakota and win either Colorado or Oklahoma.
So with that, let's take a quick state-by-state tour of the 12 most competitive states:
Alaska: A tight race is shaping up between incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski and and former governor Tony Knowles. Former senator Frank Murkowski appointed his daughter to the seat after he left office to become governor in 2003. Murkowski first has to survive an Aug. 24 primary, and she most likely will. But charges of nepotism have hampered her campaign.
Colorado: Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell is retiring. Democrats have recruited a strong candidate in state Attorney General Ken Salazar. Salazar is well-funded and has strong name recognition, but the Republican nominee, beer-heir Pete Coors, does too. Coors, with the backing of the party establishment, won a competitive primary against former congressman Bob Schaffer and is a strong candidate.
Florida: Retiring Democrat Bob Graham holds the seat, and it's the toughest state to call because of a late primary -- Aug. 31 -- and the high number of candidates on the ballot. On the Democratic side, five candidates are squaring off. The three main Democrats are Rep. Peter Deutsch, Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas and former state education commissioner Betty Castor. The race has been brutal at times. Some analysts believe Castor would make the strongest candidate in the general election, but Deutsch has been a feisty, well-financed competitor. On the Republican side, seven candidates are on the ballot, with three main contenders: former HUD secretary Mel Martinez, former congressman Bill McCollum and businessman Doug Gallagher. This one is anybody's guess.
Louisiana: Retiring Democrat John Breaux holds this seat, and the race is almost as confounding as Florida's, given Louisiana's arcane election rules that throw candidates from both parties on one general election ballot on Nov. 2. The good news for Republicans is that the ballot will include only one of their guys, Rep. David Vitter, who has the backing of the state and national party. The bad news for Democrats is that three serious Democratic contenders have qualified for the ballot. The odds-on favorite among Democrats and nonpartisan analysts in Washington is Rep. Chris John, but he faces a challenge from state treasurer John Kennedy and state Rep. Arthur Morrell. Since no candidate is expected to win a majority in November, expect to see yet another runoff in December. This is the only state in the South that hasn't elected a Republican senator since Reconstruction. But the party has at least
Despite High Hopes, Democrats Face Uphill Fight for Senate
Oklahoma. Retiring Republican Don Nickles holds this seat, and his fellow Republicans in Washington acknowledge it will be a battle to hold on to it. Democrats got a recruiting coup getting moderate Rep. Brad Carson into the race. He knows how to raise money, and analysts agree he's a formidable candidate. But analysts also agree he was given the toughest possible opponent when former congressman Tom Coburn, a physician and a conservative maverick with a populist streak, won the Republican primary. That this race is in the toss-up category is not good news for the GOP, which would have preferred to spend its resources elsewhere. Republicans in Washington say things are looking up with Coburn's primary win.
North Carolina: Democratic vice presidential nominee John Edwards, who decided not to seek reelection, holds this seat. While this state has long leaned Republican in presidential races, it's a place where Democrats can be competitive in statewide races. This year, former Clinton White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles, who lost to Elizabeth Dole in the 2002 Senate race, is running again. He takes a well-financed campaign, a lead in most polls and widespread name recognition against Republican Rep. Richard Burr. Republicans and independent analysts point out that Burr has been trouncing Bowles in fundraising, and argue that Bowles should be doing even better in the polls, given that this is his second statewide race in two years.
South Carolina: Retiring Democrat Ernest "Fritz" Hollings holds this seat. Truth be told, analysts are split on the Democrats' assertion that this race is even. No question it's competitive, though. State superintendent of education Inez Tenenbaum is considered a strong, moderate candidate. But Rep. Jim DeMint survived a divisive Republican primary battle to emerge with strong party backing and an intense desire to take this seat held by Hollings since 1966. Independent political analyst Stuart Rothenberg gives DeMint the edge in a very competitive race; Charlie Cook, another independent analyst, calls it a "toss up."
South Dakota: Thomas A. Daschle, the Senate minority leader, holds this seat, one that Democrats would prefer not to have to defend. Republicans are pouring everything into this race for challenger John Thune, who lost one of the nation's closest Senate races in 2002 to Tim Johnson. Majority Leader Bill Frist has deviated from protocol and come to the state to campaign against his counterpart across the aisle in the Senate. Just as in 2002, ads are flooding the airwaves and outside money is pouring into the state. South Dakota has long trended Republican but also maintains an independent streak. Despite the state's traditional support for Republican presidential candidates, Thune is not looking to ride President Bush's coattails, according to Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report.
California: Republicans believe they have at least an outside shot in dislodging Barbara Boxer. Boxer has never been hugely popular, and her Republican opponent, former California secretary of state Bill Jones, is well-known and well-financed. Popular Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has said he will campaign for Jones.
Washington: Republicans believe they have the potential to upset two-term Democratic Sen. Patty Murray. Rep. George R. Netherhcutt, who defeated former House speaker Thomas Foley to get his job in 1994, presents a formidable challenge, the GOP says.
Wisconsin: Republicans also believe they can beat two-term Democratic Sen. Russell Feingold. Feingold has done little to improve on his previous two close election victories and could face a tough challenge from any of the four Republican candidates who emerge from the Sept. 14 primary, Republicans say.
Missouri: Democrats believe they have at least an outside opportunity for an upset in this state, where incumbent Republican Christopher S. Bond -- who has never won any of his races by large margins -- is seeking his fourth term. The Democratic candidate is state treasurer Nancy Farmer, described by Rothenberg as "an articulate, credible candidate who showed almost $1.2 million in the bank." But the polls show Bond with a decisive edge at this point.
Pennsylvania: Democrats also believe they have an outside shot at ousting incumbent Republican Arlen Specter, who is seeking his fifth term after barely surviving a primary battle against Rep. Pat Toomey, the favorite among the party's more conservative voters. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee this week upgraded this race to its "top tier," which will likely result in more resources flowing to the campaign of Rep. Joseph M. Hoeffel III. |
