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To: CommanderCricket who wrote (34623)8/21/2004 9:32:53 AM
From: Frank  Respond to of 206097
 
CC -- I have seen that research as well. Wild cards this time though --(a) role of China, India and Pacific Rim nations where demographic bulge is of increasing significance, (b) erosion of dollar impacts U.S. more than other nations and (c) depletion - the factor we all acknowledge but rarely see mentioned on CNBC . The basic point makes sense , however, oil, NG and electricity are not merely commodities but necessities of modern ( and modernizing) life -Frank



To: CommanderCricket who wrote (34623)8/21/2004 2:14:39 PM
From: Sweet Ol  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206097
 
Commander,

I agree with your assessment of the situation regarding recession. I bought a great big '73 Plymouth Station Wagon (the SUV of those days) just before gasoline went through the roof. It got 10 mpg on good days. But, I kept it for 9 years because it was cheaper to buy fuel than to buy an more economical car. We tried to use my '69 VW as much as possible however.

The point is that it takes a long time to reduce energy consumption even after we become acutely aware of the problem. I don't see anything different today.

As BearCat said, it is truly a conundrum. The only answer I have is to invest smart so that I can survive the troubled times that are coming. I don't see a global solution. But, I don't even have 20/20 hindsight and no foresight<ggg>.

Best to all,

JRH



To: CommanderCricket who wrote (34623)8/22/2004 3:02:05 PM
From: edward miller  Respond to of 206097
 
This has been posted somewhere in the last year but
I am not going to try to find a reference since it
is old history at this point - in most recessions
the demand GROWTH for energy slows, but demand is
actually up.

The exception was in '80-'81 when the public finally
converted to better energy efficiency. My recollection
was that in the early '70s people kept there cars and
paid dearly for their gasoline.

The only real change came when people finally dumped
their cars for more efficient vehicles, and it takes
a long time before enough of the public makes that
change to pull down the energy usage. For me, that
experience was during my early adult years when money
was difficult.

Ed



To: CommanderCricket who wrote (34623)8/23/2004 6:37:49 PM
From: Archie Meeties  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206097
 
Most recent example: Asian crisis of 1997-1998.

During this time energy consumption in China and SE Asia fell from 10-15%. Consequently, oil prices fell.

One explanation -
% of energy used for transportation far lower than
% used for industry and thus more elastic.

eia.doe.gov