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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: T L Comiskey who wrote (53797)	8/22/2004 7:26:15 AM
From: T L Comiskey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Zogby.......... zogby.com Released: August 17, 2004 Top Issues and Voters’ Choices in 2004 An Analysis of the August Zogby Poll By John Zogby and Christopher Conroy The top five issues as identified by likely voters in the most recent Zogby America survey are: jobs and the economy (31%), the war on terrorism and security (19%), the war in Iraq (14%), health care (8%) and foreign policy (7%). While President Bush holds a healthy lead among those choosing terrorism, Senator Kerry leads among voters who chose each of the other four issues. Two in five (43%) who chose the economy as the top issue are Democrats and Mr. Kerry easily topped Mr. Bush among all voters who chose this issue, 56% - 38%. Only one-third (36%) of those whose top concern was the economy thought the country was headed in the right direction and only two out of five (42%) approved of Mr. Bush’s job in office. While the President and his team hoped that the economic turnaround would be to his benefit, it is clearly an albatross around his neck at this point in the campaign. If healthcare becomes a major campaign issue it could do significant damage to Mr. Bush. He is losing in a landslide to Mr. Kerry 69% - 21% among those who selected this issue as the top issue. His job approval is weak among health care voters, with only three in ten (30%) approving. Also only two in ten (22%) of those who chose health care believe the country is headed in the right direction. Mr. Bush is similarly in rough shape among those who selected foreign policy in general as the top issue -- 69% to 24% they favor Mr. Kerry. Mr. Bush’s job approval is only one-quarter (26%) and nearly seven-tenths (69%) believe the country is headed in the wrong direction among this group. There is an important gap between voters whose top issue is the war in Iraq and those whose top issue is the war on terrorism. Among those who identify the war in Iraq as their top issue, Mr. Kerry is leading 66% to 28% while among voters whose top issue is the war on terror; Mr. Bush is leading 71% to 25%. The split is also deep on Mr. Bush’s job approval, two-thirds (65%) of Iraq voters disapprove of his job in office while three-quarters (74%) of war on terror voters approve of his job in office. Similarly two-thirds (66%) of Iraq voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction while two-thirds (65%) of war on terror voters think it is headed in the right direction. There is a large partisan divide on these issues, 52% of the Iraq voters are Democrats while 54% of the war on terror voters are Republicans. This all may be due to partisan perception of the war in Iraq, many Democrats see it as an important issue completely separate from the war on terrorism while many Republicans consider the war in Iraq as an extension of the war on terror. When these numbers our aggregated for the undecideds in all of the Zogby America polls in 2004, the numbers looks even worse for Mr. Bush. Jobs and the economy has been the top issue all year (29%), with the war in Iraq in second place (14%), the war on terrorism is third (13%), followed by health care (12%). For those voters whose top issue is jobs and the economy Mr. Bush has an approval rating of less than two-fifths (38%) while only one-third (35%) think the country is headed in the right direction. Less than two in ten (16%) think Mr. Bush deserves to be re-elected. Among those for whom healthcare is a top issue 15% believe Mr. Bush deserves another term with less than two in five (39%) approving of his job in office and less than one in three (30%) believing the country is headed in the right direction. For voters whose top concern is the war in Iraq less than one in five (17%) think the president should be re-elected while less than two-fifths (38%) approve of his job in office and less than one-third (30%) think the country is headed in the wrong direction. Mr. Bush, however, is still strong amongst those undecideds for whom the war on terrorism is a top issue for. While only one-quarter (24%) think he deserves re-election, those who don’t (27%) is close in size. Half (50%) approve of the president’s job in office while another two-fifths (38%) give him a fair job rating. Over half (51%) think the country is headed in the right direction and only slightly more than one-third (35%) think the country is on the wrong track. Watch for the President to continue to challenge Mr. Kerry’s waffling and indecisiveness. It appears that the Senator’s best efforts to show that he can lead the war on terror have fallen flat among those voters who will go to the polls on November 2 with that issue foremost in their mind. At the same time, watch for Mr. Kerry to hammer on the economy, health care, and America’s damaged image abroad. As of now, Iraq is a winner for the Senator. This latest poll focused on issues. Later we will look at leadership and other qualities.