Battlegrounds States Poll - August 23, 2004
online.wsj.com
The contest for the White House remains tight, according to the latest Zogby Interactive poll of likely voters in 16 battleground states. Although the map is awash in blue, with President Bush leading in only two of the battleground states, down from the three states he held three weeks ago, the results in three-quarters of the states in the survey are within the margin of error -- meaning those states remain very hotly contested. Mr. Kerry holds the top spot in 14 of the 16 polled states, up from 13 in the previous poll.
Mr. Bush's lead is outside the margin of error in one state, but it's a key one: Ohio. Only two 20th-century presidents have been elected without carrying the Buckeye State, and no Republican has won the White House without Ohio's support since the party was founded in 1854. Mr. Kerry has top spots outside the margin in three states: Oregon, Washington and electoral-vote rich Pennsylvania.
In addition, several states continue to switch their allegiances. The survey results were closest in Florida and Missouri, where the margins between the two candidates are less than one percentage point. Both states, with their total of 38 electoral votes, have flipped between Messrs. Bush and Kerry more than once, most recently landing in the Democratic column. Similarly, the two states Mr. Bush leads in this poll, Ohio and West Virginia, have been led by both candidates at different points in the poll series. For further analysis of how these results could play out in the Electoral College, view this article: online.wsj.com
The latest poll, conducted Aug. 16-21, comes a few weeks after Mr. Kerry formally received the Democratic nomination. Mr. Bush and Vice President Cheney, as well as Mr. Kerry and running mate John Edwards, crisscrossed the country in early August, as the Democrats built on their convention gains and the Republicans worked to minimize the bounce. Mr. Bush hopes to get a boost from the GOP convention, to be held in New York Aug. 30-Sept. 2.
Ralph Nader, whose supporters are continuing to angle for ballot positions, received the backing of less than 1% of voters surveyed in most states, with his strongest showing by far coming in Nevada, at 2.3%. Nevada elections officials have confirmed he will be on the ballot in the state, but his presence or absence doesn't seem to be making a difference: Mr. Kerry drew 47.9% without Mr. Nader as an option in the recent poll, and 47.7% with him included.
Of the other battleground states, Mr. Nader is on the ballot in Arkansas, where he was supported by 0.8% of the voters in the most recent poll, and an incomplete review by West Virginia's elections officials indicates he will also be on the ballot in that state, where he was backed by 1.8% of those surveyed.
The polls were conducted by Zogby Interactive, a division of Zogby International, which is conducting online polls twice a month through Election Day in states selected with The Wall Street Journal Online. Demographic information submitted by participants in the polls is spot-checked to help prevent fraud, and the results are weighted to make them representative of each state's overall voting population.
The margin of error varies from state to state depending on the number of participants in each state. It ranges between +/- 2.6 and +/- 4.4 percentage points. Number of survey respondents: Arkansas, 508; Florida, 1,421; Iowa, 508; Michigan, 966; Minnesota, 673; Missouri, 852; Nevada, 501; New Hampshire, 512; New Mexico, 507; Ohio, 1,392; Oregon, 708; Pennsylvania, 901; Tennessee, 768; Washington, 1,038; West Virginia, 504; Wisconsin, 638. |
