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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (11003)	8/25/2004 9:37:53 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. July durable-goods orders up 1.7% on aircraft By Rex Nutting WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Orders for new U.S. civilian aircraft doubled in July, boosting orders for all durable goods by 1.7 percent, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists had predicted, on average, that total orders would rise 1.2 percent in July. Excluding the 5.6 percent gain in transportation goods, orders to U.S. factories for durables rose 0.1 percent in July after falling 0.6 percent in June. Orders for core capital goods increased 0.6 percent in July after gaining 1.4 percent in June. Shipments of durable goods increased 0.1 percent in July after rising 1.1 percent in June. Shipments of core capital goods increased 1.4 percent. Orders are up 12.4 percent year to date.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (11003)	8/25/2004 9:42:21 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Durable orders rise 1.7% on aircraft Ex-transportation orders up 0.1%, first gain since March WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Orders for new U.S. civilian aircraft doubled in July, boosting orders for all durable goods by 1.7 percent, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Excluding the 5.6 percent gain in transportation goods orders, orders to U.S. factories for durables rose 0.1 percent in July after falling 0.6 percent in June. It was the first increase since March. Orders for core capital goods increased 0.6 percent in July after gaining 1.4 percent in June. Economists had predicted, on average, that total orders would rise 1.2 percent in July. June's increase in total orders was revised higher to a 1.1 percent gain from 0.9 percent previously. Orders are up 12.4 percent year to date. The report indicates patches of strength and weakness in the factory sector. Total orders increased smartly in June and July primarily because of the leadership of one sector: Aircraft in July and defense goods in June. Shipments of durable goods - a gauge of current production -- increased 0.1 percent in July after rising 1.1 percent in June. Shipments of core capital goods increased 1.4 percent. Unfilled orders - a gauge of future production -- increased 1.2 percent. Inventories rose 0.8 percent. Most sectors saw strong orders in July, but computers, autos and defense goods lagged behind. Orders for transportation goods increased 5.6 percent. Orders for motor vehicles fell 5.3 percent, orders for civilian aircraft soared 100.4 percent, and orders for defense aircraft fell 38.4 percent. Shipments of transportation goods dropped 3.9 percent. Orders for computers and other electronics dropped 3.8 percent. Orders for computers sank 6.7 percent. Shipments of electronics increased 1.7 percent. Orders for machinery increased 2.1 percent while shipments rose 3.2 percent. Orders for fabricated metals slipped 0.5 percent while shipments rose 1.7 percent. Orders for primary metals rose 5.8 percent while shipments gained 2.5 percent. Orders for electrical equipment increased 5 percent as shipments gained 4.1 percent. Orders for defense capital goods fell 16.2 percent while shipments increased 3.1 percent.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (11003)	8/25/2004 9:47:34 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Buba revises German June industrial output to down 1.4 pct vs May Wednesday, August 25, 2004 12:00:59 PM (Correcting to show output contracted in both revision and first estimate) FRANKFURT (AFX) - The Bundesbank said it has revised German industrial output for June to a seasonally-adjusted decline of 1.4 pct from May In its preliminary estimate issued earlier this month, the Labour and Economy Ministry said industrial output was down a seasonally-adjusted 1.9 pct in June from May

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (11003)	8/25/2004 9:54:08 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Polish central bank raises key interest rates by 50 basis points; 25 expected Wednesday, August 25, 2004 11:55:16 AM WARSAW (AFX) - The Polish central bank's monetary policy committee said it raised its key interest rates by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points at its monthly meeting. The discount rates was hiked to 7.00 pct, the Lombard to 8.00 pct and the minimum interbank rate to 6.5 pct. Analysts had forecast rises of 25 basis points. Polish rates rose by 25 points in July and 50 in June ===================================================================== How can Europe possibly deal with all these countries, each with their own set if problems with one EURO interest rate? Poland is not in the EU but if it was its interest rates would immediately drop 500 basis points would is not. How the H is this resolved and how can Europe deal with all of this in the first place. Haim, Zonder, Anyone else? Mish

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (11003)	8/25/2004 9:59:46 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Trichet still sees gradual economic upturn; holds euro zone forecasts UPDATE Wednesday, August 25, 2004 9:25:26 AM (updates with comments on growth, interest rates, oil prices) PARIS (AFX) - European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the bank remains cautious yet confident concerning prospects for a gradual economic recovery and of keeping inflation stable over the medium term [It seems everone is cautious but confident that the world experiences a gradual economic recovery with low inflation. - mish] Despite the negative impact on growth of the current high oil prices, which cannot be termed a crisis, the ECB thus maintains its assessment of the euro zone economy unchanged from its July and August bulletins, Trichet said in an interview with broadcaster RTL "Soaring petrol prices are not good for growth or inflation, but this is neither 1974 nor the start of 1980, when we experienced oil crises," he said. "We are a lot better protected against rising prices of oil products (than we were then)." Trichet said he remains confident that euro zone inflation "is capable of falling back below 2 percent" next year from current levels of around 2.4 pct "(So) taking all factors into account, I do not think we need to cut our growth forecasts for the euro zone, and we are in no way calling into question our assessment of confidence in a gradual recovery, which is especially visible in France." In its latest bulletin published Aug 12, the ECB said inflation risks must be monitored closely in light of continued high oil prices. But while stronger inflation pressures are likely in the short term, the medium-term outlook remains in line with its goal of maintaining prices close to but below 2 pct Trichet indicated that, for the time being, the ECB has no intention of following the US FOMC's lead in raising interest rates "We each have our own responsibilities, and as far as we are concerned we are keeping our assessment unchanged from July and August," he told RTL Questioned on the 5 bln eur of surplus tax revenues that France expects to generate this year, he said the ECB "can only recommend that these are set aside ... to cover fallow periods." France, whose budget deficit remains stubbornly in excess of EU limits, is seen posting additional revenues on stronger than expected growth Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy wants to use the extra receipts to cut debt, but Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin has indicated some may be used to finance new spending programmes fxstreet.com

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (11003)	8/25/2004 10:06:07 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

U.S. oil ticks higher but seen heading down Wednesday, August 25, 2004 4:06:10 AM reuters.com By Tanya Pang SINGAPORE, Aug 25 (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday, halting a three-day losing streak, although the market was expected to retreat further as concerns over a major supply disruption ease. U.S. light crude <CLc1> climbed 10 cents to $45.31 a barrel, clawing back some losses since striking a record $49.40 on Friday, the highest price in the 21-year history of oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "Prices will ease back unless we have another supply-side issue that we haven't seen already," said Daniel Hynes, industry analyst at ANZ Bank in Melbourne. "Venezuela, YUKOS and Iraq are all fully priced in and we'd need to see something quite significant to push back up to $50," said Hynes, who has targeted an average price of $40-$45 for U.S. crude in the third quarter. Prices have been falling since oil failed to hit the psychological $50 mark last week, together with the full resumption of Iraqi crude exports from the south of the country and restored oil flows in the north. Iraq has resumed pumping crude along its northern Kirkuk pipeline to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan at about 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) -- just more than half normal capacity. Iraq last sold oil from Kirkuk in late May. Authorities have also restored full exports from the south at about 2 million bpd, despite fighting in Basra city. Reduced flows from Iraq and concern that financial turmoil at Russia's top producer YUKOS could ultimately disrupt supplies helped drive oil prices up $10 since the end of June. Worries the mid-August referendum in Venezuela on the rule of President Hugo Chavez might lead to violence and disrupt oil sales from the world's fifth-biggest exporter have so far proved unfounded. U.S. CRUDE STOCKS SEEN RISING "If there's any positive news on supplies, such as increased stocks or more supply from Iraq, prices could really come down," said Hynes, who forecasts U.S. crude will be between $37-$40 a barrel by the end of the year. Analysts are expecting U.S. data to show crude inventories in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, to rose 600,000 barrels in the week to Aug. 20. The government Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases its weekly stocks report at 1430 GMT on Wednesday. Eight industry analysts surveyed by Reuters predicted U.S. distillate stocks, including key heating oil, rose an average 1.3 million barrels, building ahead of the peak demand winter months. They estimated U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 2.2 million barrels on robust demand ahead of the Labor Day holiday weekend in the first week of September. The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises 26 industrialised nations on energy policy, said on Tuesday that oil's surge had run ahead of supply and demand. "We think market fundamentals today are not compatible with those levels of prices because there is more supply than demand," IEA executive director Claude Mandil told Reuters after talks with U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham. Fuel demand has been growing at the fastest rate in 24 years despite the price surge, leaving world supplies with little leeway for disruptions. "There is one real topic for concern which is that spare capacity in producing countries is less than it was before which does not give a lot of room in case of unpredicted events," Mandil said. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which controls most global oil exports, is pumping about 30 million bpd, with only Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest exporter, holding any significant spare capacity. fxstreet.com

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (11003)	8/25/2004 10:24:21 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

U.S. July new-home sales fall 6.4%; June sales weaken By Greg Robb WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Sales of new homes in the United States fell 6.4 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.13 million, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. There was also a large downward revision to June sales. The department said sales fell a revised 5.6 percent in June to 1.21 million units, compared with the initial estimate of a 0.8 percent drop to 1.31 million units. So the level of new home sales in July is well below expectations. Economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch were expecting a sales rate of about 1.29 million in July. The number of new homes for sale on the market rose about 4.2 percent to 393,000, representing 4.2-months of sales at the July pace. New-home sales fell sharply in the Northeast and South, but rose to record high levels in the Midwest. Sales in the West were down slightly. The median sales price rose 9.0 percent year-over-year to $207,400.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (11003)	8/25/2004 10:27:31 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Treasurys extend gain after data show home sales drop By Rachel Koning CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Treasurys extended gains after a report showed a decline in new-home buying last month. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up 8/32 at 100 1/32, yielding 4.24 percent vs. 4.27 percent at the previous close. Sales of new homes in the United States fell 6.4 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.13 million. There was also a large downward revision to June sales. The bond market was already firmer following a report that showed a July gain in durables goods orders was driven almost exclusively by gains in volatile aircraft orders. =================================================================== I was wondering why treasuries were so firm on that Durable Goods Data. Now we know. Mish