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To: kdavy who wrote (9248)	8/25/2004 5:49:08 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

kdavy, I know you have plenty of cash. I also know you are very adept as both a short term investor and a long term one. You don't need to listen to anyone. That being said I believe you should hold off. What is cheap now is all too likely to become even more inexpensive. Look through this series of charts: investorshub.com Is there enough fear in the market yet for a long term bottom? Where are we at in the economic cycle? Are we closer to the top or to the bottom? stockcharts.com What about election year cycles? Especially after ISM peaks? investorshub.com investorshub.com Still think now is the time to buy long term leaps? Then run monthly charts starting with this one of AMAT: stockcharts.com[h,a]maclyyay[d19960101,20041207][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G I see AMAT as being at risk of falling as low as it did last cycle but the lower Bollinger Band is at 11.22 and rising. Finally when were the last two cyclical bottoms set for the semiconductor industry as far as stocks are concerned? October 1998 and October 2002. The next real bottom could easily not be seen until October 2006. investorshub.com Best of luck no matter what you decide! All of the above are JMHO's, RtS

To: kdavy who wrote (9248)	8/25/2004 7:43:35 PM
From: Nancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

There are actually 2 5000 contracts of '07 20. It seems one is at 3.00 the other at 2.75. OI is only 680. I dont see how '07 leap could be beneficial. If someone is bullish I think SELLING '07 leap naked puts probably a better idea. NVLS MidQ will give you some idea of current biz. tonight a small equipment name CMOS reported - they beat this Qtr which they guided up last time, only to warn next Qtr - good size revise down also. They said weakness largely coming from their Asia customers. Prudential had a tour in Taiwan just now and they came back downgrade a whole bunch of names citing order pushouts.