Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11058)	8/26/2004 12:49:31 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

1.3M slip into poverty money.cnn.com The number of Americans living in poverty jumped by 1.3 million last year as household incomes held steady, the Census Bureau said Wednesday. The percentage of the U.S. population living in poverty rose to 12.5 percent from 12.1 percent -- as the poverty rate among children jumped to its highest level in 10 years. The rate for adults 18-to-64 and 65 and older remained steady. The bureau also said that the share of aggregate income for the lowest 20 percent of Americans fell to 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11058)	8/26/2004 12:58:03 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Hack on the FED media Blitz the very fact that the fed governors felt a need to go on a media blitz chattering about 'self-sustaining recovery" makes me wonder what was said behind closed doors. the wheels have come off this recovery pretty fast... little surprise to most here. but consider that we have just had two rate hikes, and those effects take 6-9 months to percolate through the economy. the fed is completely painted in a corner. a failure to raise hikes further is an admission that they were wrong and could be greeted skeptically by the markets. raising rates anyway could be worse. and if weaker data come out, any discussion of lowering rates and its "look out below". i believe we are approaching the point of "checkmate" - there are no good options here. in recent history, these have been the times we've seen the most jawboning by the fed, hoping to sway the markets without actually having to do anything that they believe could hurt the economy (ie, raise rates), the irony being that they can't even come out and say they think it could hurt the market. it's like an alice in wonderland environment, with greenspan as the mad hatter, speaking in code, unable to say the truth, and the market is more than eager to gulp down the lies. -hack

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11058)	8/26/2004 1:02:51 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Residential Rental Vacancy Rates home.pacbell.net

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11058)	8/26/2004 1:21:19 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Check out the housing situation in Las Vegas and Orange County Message 20452072

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11058)	8/26/2004 2:00:15 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

House of Saud on line one, sir Did anybody seriously think oil prices wouldn't reverse course in time for the convention? After coming within a swift boat's wake of $50 a barrel last week, oil prices have been tumbling for four straight days, closing Wednesday under $44 a barrel, their lowest level in two weeks. Nothing's really changed in terms of increased demand and strained refining capacity. But a report on unchanged gasoline supplies and a few well-timed quips to the press about the possibility of tapping into strategic oil reserves were more than enough to trigger a bout of profit taking by the hedge funds. Look for oil to resume its upward climb shortly. While $70 or $80 a barrel might be a stretch, the $50 threshold is as sure a thing as a Yanks-Cards World Series in October. In the meantime, enjoy the equities rally that a relief in oil prices will provide during the convention. How to make a small fortune in airlines I know, I know. Start with a large fortune. Owning airlines outright, or even as a long-term equity investment for that matter, has always been a mug's game. But one thing is for certain; when oil prices fall, airline stocks go up. The Amex Airline Index (XX:$XAL: news, chart, profile) is up almost 20 percent since Aug. 10, led by a rally in shares of Northwest Airlines (NWAC: news, chart, profile), Delta Airlines (DAL: news, chart, profile) and AMR Corp. (AMR: news, chart, profile), most of it this week. Granted, these stocks will turn on you the instant oil starts to climb again, especially with the financial problems of many of these airlines. But you have to appreciate this latest surge, especially in the face of the third anniversary of 9/11. Securing the election Most of the homeland securities plays have come off the highs they reached earlier this month during the Orange Alert scare on New York and New Jersey. But since stocks such as InVision Technologies (INVN: news, chart, profile), maker of bomb detectors for airports, and Digital Recorders (TBUS: news, chart, profile), which makes surveillance equipment, are prone to big rallies whenever Tom Ridge opens his mouth, it's not too hard to expect to see more volatility from them as the actual election on Nov. 2 approaches. Mining stocks, of course, remain the top performing stock sector of the year and will remain high in the rankings as long as gold is over $400 an ounce. See industry analyzer. Tech stocks are still oversold, even with this week's rally. And homebuilder stocks are probably just at the start of a painful rebuilding process now that interest rates are headed back up (though they remain a play for anybody betting the Fed is done raising rates in the short-term). Forget the market, it will be there later The best thing about just turning off your computer and going away for a week -- or two -- is that you realize that there are some people in the world who aren't focused with every fiber of their being on next week's jobs numbers; or on 200-day moving averages; or on oil prices; or even on the election itself (whatever happened to that Gore guy?). That's what most New Yorkers plan to do next week. And if it's good enough for them, it's good enough for the rest of us. Sometimes the best strategy is just to go on vacation. Beach volleyball or not. cbs.marketwatch.com