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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11067)	8/26/2004 3:49:55 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

US. jobless claims rise on storm damage - Thursday, August 26, 2004 1:45:51 PM ["storm damage" has a much better ring to it than "the weather" doesnt't it? - mish] WASHINGTON (AFX) - First-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 10,000 in the week ending Aug. 21 to 343,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday It's the highest level in four weeks About half the gain was due to the impact of Hurricane Charley, which battered Florida and other Southeastern states on Aug. 13 and 14, a government official said. Hundreds of businesses in Southwest Florida were damaged by the storm Economists were expecting a gain to about 338,000, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. Market reaction was modest. Treasury prices were slightly higher, pushing yields lower. "So long as claims remain stable and comfortably below 350,000, claims data is unlikely to have much market impact," said Mat Johnson, chief economist for ThinkEquity Partners. Despite the gain, the more reliable four-week average of new claims dipped by 750 to 336,750, the lowest in four weeks. Economists put more weight on the four-week average as a guide to the strength of the labor market because it smoothes out one-time distortions, such as weather events Meanwhile, the number of people collecting state unemployment checks rose by 5,000 to 2.897 million in the week ending Aug. 14. Continuing claims have been little changed for the past four weeks The insured unemployment rate remained at 2.3 percent. "The pace of layoffs has fallen off considerable and is now consistent with an economy in the midst of a solid recovery," said Geoffrey Somes, an economist for Economy.com. "However, slower layoffs is not the same thing as stronger hiring." The figures come a week before the Labor Department issues its monthly employment report for August. Economists are expecting modest gains of about 150,000 in nonfarm payrolls after disappointing gains in June and July During the survey week for the employment report, continuing claims were down by 50,000 compared with the survey week in July, while first-time claims were down by 8,000 Economists have said initial claims in the neighborhood of 340,000 are consistent with monthly job gains of about 150,000 to 250,000. The economy needs to add about 150,000 jobs a month to absorb new entrants into the labor force [So we have made negative progress during this entire recovery by the tune of millions of jobs. - mish] Jobless claims have been relatively steady for months The four-week average of initial claims has plateaued at a range between 335,00 and 345,000 for the past five months after plunging by about 60,000 in the last three months of 2003. Continuing claims have been near 2.9 million for the past three months after dropping by 600,000 between September and March, when job growth accelerated But job growth has stalled in recent months. Nonfarm payroll gains have averaged 106,000 over the past three months, compared with 253,000 a month from February through April Long-term unemployment has been particularly insidious during this business cycle. In July, 1.7 million, or 20 percent, of the 8.2 million workers classified as unemployed had been out of work longer than six months. The average duration of unemployment remained high at 18.6 weeks