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To: kdavy who wrote (9260)	8/26/2004 3:49:36 PM
From: Nancy	Respond to of 13403

Yup. I have been saying these stocks are at best scenario being fair valued. That is, if the 2005 estimates dont get revised down. of course others will disagree and claim the growth will continue to 2008 and beyond. (just a random number). traditionally, AMAT bottomed at 2x book value. we are far from that. (i think for cyclical stocks, you cannot use earnings alone, you need to look at cash level and book value especially they are all capital intensive stocks.)

To: kdavy who wrote (9260)	8/26/2004 3:55:01 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

OT: I believe the bubble years still cloud the judgement of small investors . Many of us still think a stock is cheap simply because it sells at a lower price than it did in January 2004 or worse yet March 2000. I've been guilty of that kind of thinking myself. I do think that there are better methods of measuring relative valuations than rolling EPS but you're right it is an eye opener. Fundamentally I think if AMAT gets to 2 x's book then it's a good risk to reward scenario. I'm hoping for the volatility indices to fly higher at the same time as we get a 2 x's book value price to help signal a long term bottom. But who knows? Finally if somehow, no matter how unlikely I think it might be, the market begins a march to new highs starting tomorrow I hope you won't hate me. RtS