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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: one_less who wrote (144247)	8/27/2004 1:38:16 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

<He didn't quite win, however. A win would have been the rallying of the Shii population in an effort to unseat the sitting government and move for a Khomeni style take over. I am sure this is still on a 'to do' list.> You mean he did not win his "war" -- well wars are not usually won in a single battle. The question here is, did he win this battle? You can make a strong case that this was a decisive win for Sadr. And as for Sistani, Sadr is extremely useful to him. I put it to you that that Sistani can go to London, let Sadr do his thing, and then come back to let Sadr walk away free and clear, not because Sistani is trying to defuse Sadr, but on the contrary so that Sadr can do what would be beneath Sistani to do directly -- laying the groundwork for getting rid of "the Americans", including the current government which neither Sistani nor Sadr would see as having any legitimacy whatsoever. Who won the "war". We don't know yet, but in this battle the US clearly lost once again.

To: one_less who wrote (144247)	8/27/2004 1:48:26 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

"He didn't quite win, however. A win would have been the rallying of the Shii population in an effort to unseat the sitting government and move for a Khomeni style take over." Actually sistani wins and he has a far more moderate agenda and a more realistic view of a multi-ethnic iraq. What al sadr does not realize or perhaps accept is that the demographic makeup of iraq is a bit different from shiaa iran where khomeni could come to power. There will be no shiaocracy over iraq unless all the kurds and sunni are crushed. Mike