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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (18132)	8/27/2004 4:52:28 PM
From: re3	Respond to of 110194

Date: Fri Aug 27 2004 15:56 trotsky (mooney@oil) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved every time the front month changes, the backwardation alone shaves almost 2 bucks off the crude price...then, after the market has risen for 8 weeks in a row, the funds probably thought it was as good a time as any to take some profits. and, not surprisingly, the 'crude oil top pickers' parade puts in a forceful appearance on both TV and various trader massage boards, since don't you know, the 'fundamentals' don't justify current prices. but the fact remains that the market has broken through 25 year old resistance...it is probably THE most important technical development in any market out there. it foretells much higher prices in the long term, regardless of short term corrections. lastly, if you get your peak oil info from the US government's energy information agency, you're truly lost. as Dick Cheney himself remarked during his Halliburton time, presenting a graph of long term demand growth projections "this means we'd need to find 50 billion barrels every year by 2010...". newsflash: we're NOT finding them. not even close. with 18 major producing regions already in terminal decline it's probably safe to say tht the global Hubbert peak has come and gone...we're now in the plateau period, which should see fresh extremes in prices that no-one dares to imagine yet.

To: ild who wrote (18132)	8/27/2004 5:37:39 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Don't like how the specs have used up ammo trying to push gold, and POG hasn't gone anywhere: they are 150,308 futures w/options long. On the otherhand Sept. is a strong seasonal pattern for gold and gold stocks: 321gold.com I'm a ballsy sort, so I'm inclined to play the seasonal, especially given how depressed the stuff I'm using is. Needs watching though, maybe just a trade and exit over the next several weeks? This is a good illustration of why liquid AMEX stocks and discount brokers, are the way to go on this.