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Politics : Proof that John Kerry is Unfit for Command -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brumar89 who wrote (3607)	8/27/2004 6:15:49 PM
From: Andrew N. Cothran	Respond to of 27181

CNN: Bush holds slight lead in Electoral College Tight race in some states From John Mercurio and Molly Levinson CNN Political Unit Friday, August 27, 2004 Posted: 5:24 PM EDT (2124 GMT) NEW YORK (CNN) -- President Bush heads into the Republican National Convention next week with a small lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry in the all-important Electoral College, according to a new CNN analysis of state polling, advertising buys and interviews with campaign strategists and neutral analysts. Bush would receive 274 electoral votes to Kerry's 264 if the election were held today, less than 10 weeks before November 2 and three days before the opening of the GOP convention in Madison Square Garden. If Kerry were to pick up a state as small as Nevada, the electoral vote would be tied, throwing the election into the House of Representatives. CNN's political unit compiled the electoral map after reviewing state polls and conducting extensive interviews with pollsters from both campaigns, as well as local political reporters, strategists and consultants. The map bears a remarkable resemblance to the results of the 2000 election, in which Bush defeated Al Gore by just five electoral votes and lost the popular vote. Bush remains strong in the South, the prairie and mountain states. Kerry leads in his native Northeast and on the West Coast. The two candidates continue to battle evenly in industrial Midwest states. Bush is carrying every state he carried four years ago -- except New Hampshire, which has four electoral votes. In New Hampshire, which Bush won by 7,211 votes four years ago, Kerry, a native of adjacent Massachusetts, is benefiting from high name recognition and the widespread coverage he received during the state's primaries. Kerry won the primary in January after scoring a come-from-behind victory over former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in the Iowa caucuses one week earlier. About a dozen states remain extremely competitive and are widely considered too close to call. Leading that list are Ohio, Florida, Nevada and Missouri, where Bush holds a narrow lead, as well as Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Pennsylvania, which now lean toward Kerry. West Virginia and Arizona are also competitive, but Democrats concede that those state now fall into the Bush column. Likewise, Oregon and Washington state could ultimately back either candidate, but Kerry is currently building a strong base of support in the Pacific Northwest. The race in Ohio remains extremely fluid, and both campaigns remain highly organized in the Buckeye State. All four principals -- and most of their wives -- have campaigned there at least once over the past two weeks. The state's industrial base has been hard hit by job losses and, Democrats say, voters have grown disenchanted with the Republicans' control of both state and federal government. These days, Republican Gov. Bob Taft's approval rating hovers near or below 40 percent. "That's what you have in Taft and what people are seeing nationally -- a very strongly negative feeling there about the Republican Party," a Democratic strategist said. Republicans concede that Columbus, Ohio, a normally Republican area, is trending more Democratic. Also, Cincinnati has not been performing as well for Republicans as it has in the past. In Florida, Bush is aided by one of the nation's strongest economies and best job markets. He also has a strong surrogate in his brother, Republican Gov. Jeb Bush, who won re-election by 13 points two years ago and remains highly popular. Bush-Cheney aides say the Bush brothers help each other with different demographics: The governor does better among younger voters, the president performs better among older voters. Democrats say they're focusing on turnout in Miami-Dade County, a party stronghold that contains nearly one-fifth of the state's population and where Gore-Lieberman failed to generate a strong turnout four years ago. The CNN survey reveals some interesting trends as the campaign nears the crucial Labor Day checkpoint. For example, less than two months after Kerry chose Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina as his running mate in part to challenge Bush's lock on the South, his campaign has made few inroads into any state south of the Mason-Dixon Line. Kerry last month pulled TV ads his campaign was running in Arkansas, Virginia and Louisiana, and strategists now concede they have little chance of carrying those states. Part of Kerry's problem, aides say, has been a failure to generate support among a large segment of the African-American vote, particularly in states like Louisiana. The one exception to this trend is North Carolina, which has voted for the GOP presidential nominee every year since 1964. Bush still leads there, aided by a strong base of social conservatives. But Kerry's selection of Edwards has helped him cut into Bush's lead.

To: Brumar89 who wrote (3607)	8/27/2004 6:30:15 PM
From: Brumar89	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27181

FACT SHEET: Top 10 Connections Between John Kerry And 527s George W. Bush ^ \| August 25, 2004 Former Kerry Campaign Manager Jim Jordan Founded Thunder Road Group, A Consulting Firm Representing America Coming Together, The Media Fund And America Votes. "Jim Jordan, a Winston-Salem native, was fired as John Kerry's presidential campaign manager in November…. Now he has started his own consulting firm, called Thunder Road Group. The firm is representing America Coming Together, the Media Fund, and America Votes, all pro-Democratic 527 political organizations gearing up for the 2004 election." ("People," National Journal, 2/28/04) Harold Ickes Is A Member Of DNC's Executive Committee And Head Of The Media Fund And Chief Of Staff To America Coming Together. Ickes "Admits That He Occasionally Tells The Kerry Camp What He's Up To, And He Insists It's Perfectly Legal." (Jim Drinkard, "'Outside' Political Groups Full Of Party Insiders," USA Today, 6/28/04; Paula Dwyer, "Why 527 Is The Dems' Lucky Number," BusinessWeek Online, 7/28/04) MoveOn.org's Zack Exley Joined Kerry Campaign As Director Of Online Communications And Organizing. (Sharon Theimer, "MoveOn Staffer Moves On To Kerry Campaign," The Associated Press, 4/7/04) Bob Bauer Of Perkins Coie Is Legal Counsel To Both Kerry Campaign And America Coming Together (ACT). (Jim Rutenberg And Kate Zernike, "Veteran's Group Had GOP Lawyer," The New York Times, 8/25/04) Kerry Campaign Paid Bauer's Law Firm, Perkins Coie, $360,244.28 For Legal Services And Other Expenses. (Federal Election Commission Records, www.fec.gov, Accessed 8/5/04) America Coming Together (ACT) Paid Bauer's Law Firm, Perkins Coie, $176,732 For Legal Services And Other Expenses. (Political Money Line Website, www.tray.com, Accessed 8/5/04) Joe Sandler Is General Counsel To DNC While Serving As Legal Counsel To 527s MoveOn.org And Moving America Forward. (Jonathan Groner, "Power Punch," Legal Times, 4/26/04) Erik Smith Is The Media Fund's Executive Director And Worked With Steve Elmendorf, Kerry's Deputy Campaign Manager, On Dick Gephardt's Presidential Campaign. (Jim VandeHei, "Kerry Expected To Emerge From Battle Stronger Than Ever," The Washington Post, 3/3/04) Minyon Moore, A Kerry Campaign Consultant, Serves On Executive Committee Of America Coming Together. (Glen Johnson, "Kerry To Press 'Environmental Justice,'" The Boston Globe, 4/22/03; Lisa Getter, "Kerry Aided By 'Illegal' Soft Money, GOP Claims," Los Angeles Times, 4/1/04) Media Fund Ad Consultant Bill Knapp Hired By Kerry Campaign. (Thomas B. Edsall, "Shifting The Money So The Votes Will Follow," The Washington Post, 5/11/04) Former ACT Employee Rodney Shelton Hired As Kerry's Arkansas State Director. (Michael R. Wickline, "Arkansan To Head Kerry's State Effort," Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 6/22/04) Kerry's New Mexico Caucus Director, Geri Prado, Is Leading ACT's GOTV Effort In That State. (Michael Finnegan, "Kerry's Low Profile May Cost Crucial Latino Votes," Los Angeles Times, 5/3/04) Don't Forget The Dewey Square Group Provides Political Consulting Services For Both Kerry Campaign And America Coming Together (ACT). Kerry Campaign Has Paid Dewey Square Group $194,936.48 For Political Consulting And Other Expenses. (Federal Election Commission Records, www.fec.gov, Accessed 8/5/04) America Coming Together (ACT) Has Paid Dewey Square Group $51,808 For Political Consulting And Other Expenses. (Political Money Line Website, www.tray.com, Accessed 8/5/04) At Least Four Kerry Advisors Are Associated With Dewey Square Group: Michael Whouley, Jill Alper, Minyon Moore And Joe Ricca. (Glen Johnson, "Kerry To Press 'Environmental Justice,'" The Boston Globe, 4/22/03; Dewey Square Group Website, deweysquare.com, Accessed 2/5/04; Peter Grier, "How Kerry Turned The Corner," Christian Science Monitor, 2/5/04; Glen Johnson and John Aloysius Farrell, "Kerry's New-Look Campaign Relies On A Few Key Players," The Boston Globe, 1/9/03) And Michael Meehan, Now A Communications Advisor To Kerry, Was Hired By NARAL In 2003 To "Oversee Its Vastly Expanded Soft-Money Operation." His Hiring Was "Billed As A Two-Month Leave From His Job As Political Director Of NARAL." (Carol Beggy and Mark Shanahan, "Names," The Boston Globe, 11/21/03; Chris Cillizza, "NARAL Plans Big '04 Effort," Roll Call, 5/8/03) freerepublic.com