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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (11124)	8/28/2004 6:30:21 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Heinz on Oil Date: Fri Aug 27 2004 15:56 trotsky (mooney@oil) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved every time the front month changes, the backwardation alone shaves almost 2 bucks off the crude price...then, after the market has risen for 8 weeks in a row, the funds probably thought it was as good a time as any to take some profits. and, not surprisingly, the 'crude oil top pickers' parade puts in a forceful appearance on both TV and various trader massage boards, since don't you know, the 'fundamentals' don't justify current prices. but the fact remains that the market has broken through 25 year old resistance...it is probably THE most important technical development in any market out there. it foretells much higher prices in the long term, regardless of short term corrections. lastly, if you get your peak oil info from the US government's energy information agency, you're truly lost. as Dick Cheney himself remarked during his Halliburton time, presenting a graph of long term demand growth projections "this means we'd need to find 50 billion barrels every year by 2010...". newsflash: we're NOT finding them. not even close. with 18 major producing regions already in terminal decline it's probably safe to say tht the global Hubbert peak has come and gone...we're now in the plateau period, which should see fresh extremes in prices that no-one dares to imagine yet.

To: orkrious who wrote (11124)	8/28/2004 7:05:03 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

OUTLOOK UK data to show moderation in consumer habits Friday, August 27, 2004 12:44:02 PM LONDON (AFX) - The coming week is expected to bring more evidence of a moderation in consumer habits, with key lending data likely to show the series of rate hikes from the Bank of England are starting to bite If proven, the slowdown may help the central bank hold off its next interest rate increase at least until November, along with its next round of forecasts for inflation and growth. The week starts in earnest on Tuesday after the long weekend, with UK consumer credit data for July seen dropping to 1.6 bln stg in July from 2.1 bln the previous month, while mortgage lending tapers to 9.0 bln stg from 9.2 bln The numbers will be closely watched because in June, total outstanding debt hit the 1 trln stg mark for the first time ever. So far, data from the likes of the British Bankers Association which accounts for roughly two-thirds of all mortgages, suggest that the pace of growth is dropping off The big question is by how much Ross Walker at RBoS believes mortgage borrowing remained "solid" in July, "in line with the recent trend" and only a "modest slowdown" in unsecured lending But analysts will also be watching the number of mortgage approvals during the month for indication of how lending in future months will pan out. Once again, survey data suggest there was a drop in the number of approvals, which if borne out on Tuesday, will signal lower mortgage figures in coming months Also out the same day, Nationwide Building Society's closely watched gauge of house price inflation may well add to the argument that the property market is indeed coming off the boil. "The Nationwide is one of the more reliable house price indicators. We estimate a modest 0.5 pct rise, the weakest since April 2003," said John Butler at HSBC "That will be taken as evidence the housing market is slowing but annual inflation is running at over 19 pct," he added The two purchasing managers surveys during the week are also predicted to show some moderation but not to such an extent that will cause undue concern The first, the manufacturing index, due out Wednesday, is seen slipping marginally to 56.0 in August from 56.3 in July Even such a drop will be "still consistent with a healthy manufacturing recovery," said Butler at HSBC The service sector equivalent on Friday, is also expected to drop slightly, 56.0 from 56.2 in July. "The index has slowed for the past three consecutive months, since the MPC raised rates more aggressively. We expect a further drop associated with the latest rate rise," said Butler Again, such a drop still signals a comfortable level of growth in the sector. Also out during the week is another important survey -- the Confederation of British Industry's poll of the service sector, which is expected to rebound from a steep fall in July. The survey is due out Tuesday

To: orkrious who wrote (11124)	8/28/2004 7:15:25 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK Aug consumer confidence index -5 vs -3 in July, lowest in 2004 - GfK UPDATE Friday, August 27, 2004 10:11:36 AM (Updating to add further details on index components) LONDON (AFX) - The consumer confidence headline index for the UK fell to -5 in August from -3 in July, the lowest measure this year, as the latest interest rate hikes take their toll, according to a survey by research company GfK Martin Hamblin The two-point drop follows another quarter-point rate increase by the Bank of England earlier this month, taking the key repo rate to 4.75 pct, the fifth rate hike since November last year "We've seen media reports that the five rate rises since November are beginning to bite and the results of this month's Consumer Confidence survey certainly add fuel to this theory," said Monique Hellel, finance director at GfK Martin Hamblin Four out of the five measures that contribute to the headline index score have decreased this month, GfK said Most notably, perceptions of the general economic situation in the country over the last twelve months fell by six points to -24 from -18 in July The major purchases climate fell to +7 from +11 in July. While this is not as low as June's measure of +5, it is well below the annual average of +12 and below August 2003's measure of +19 The perception of whether now is a good time to save showed a small increase, however, to +22 from +21 in July The GfK UK Consumer Confidence Survey was conducted amongst a sample of 2003 individuals aged 16 and above on behalf of the European Commission The figures have an estimated margin of error of plus or minus 2 pct fxstreet.com

To: orkrious who wrote (11124)	8/28/2004 7:17:57 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

German consumer climate index 3.0 in Aug vs 3.9 in July - GfK Friday, August 27, 2004 8:15:39 AM FRANKFURT (AFX) - The German consumer climate index fell to 3.0 points in August from 3.9 points in July and 4.8 points in June, according to a monthly survey by GfK market research GfK expects the overall climate index to fall to 2.0 points in September "It is becoming increasingly clear that private consumption cannot be expected to contribute to the economic upswing this year," Gfk said Gfk said the economic expectations index, which measures consumers' optimism about the economic outlook, rose 2.1 points in August to minus 18.4 But the index measuring consumers' expectations about their own incomes fell 5.5 points to minus 19.5, it said The index measuring consumers' willingness to spend rose 10 points to minus 27.8, although the rebound did not quite compensate for last month's 13-point decline The GfK consumer climate survey polls 2,000 people and is carried out on behalf of the European Commission

To: orkrious who wrote (11124)	8/28/2004 7:20:02 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Japanese govt bond closes firmer on jump in unemployment rate Friday, August 27, 2004 7:37:04 AM TOKYO (AFX) - Japanese government bond prices closed firmer for a second straight day, with a 0.3 percentage point jump in unemployment for July helping dampen the outlook for the country's economic recovery, leading to a shift favoring safer instruments like debt, dealers said But the consumer price index, which was also released today, had limited impact on the bond market, as they were within expectation among investors, they said "The rise in the unemployment rate was a surprise," said Akio Yoshino, chief economist at Societe Generale Asset Management "In addition, the rate of increase in job offers has been slowing down recently. The next focus is the industrial output for July due out on Tuesday," Akino said. Yoshikiyo Shimamine, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute basically agreed, adding: "Some investors were seen hesitating to actively trade, as a number of key indicators are scheduled to be released next week." The yield of the lead 1.9 pct 10-year bond finished at 1.575 pct, down from 1.600 pct at yesterday's close. The bellwether 20-year bond yield ended at 2.170 pct, down from 2.205 at Thursday's close, with the yield of the lead five-year note finishing at 0.705 pct, down from 0.740 pct Bond prices move inversely to yields. The 10-year bond futures contract for September delivery ended at 137.29, up slightly from 137.27 late yesterday The unemployment rate in Japan jumped to a seasonally adjusted 4.9 pct in July, from 4.6 pct the previous month, the Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications said, with the indicator well above market expectations. Economists on average expected the rate to remain at 4.6 pct, with some even expecting it to fall, according to a Nihon Keizai Shimbun survey of 23 research institutions. The forecasts ranged from 4.5 pct to 4.6 pct The male unemployment rate rose to 5.3 pct in July from 4.9 pct the previous month, while the female jobless rate worsened to 4.4 pct from 4.2 pct, the ministry said The ministry also said the metropolitan Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), a leading indicator of nationwide price trends, rose 0.2 pct in August from the previous month. On a nationwide basis, the core rate -- the Bank of Japan's primary measure of price trends -- fell 0.1 pct from the previous month, after rising 0.1 pct in June. Year-on-year it fell 0.2 pct after declining 0.1 pct in June. "CPIs had limited impact on bond trades, as these were within expectations among market participants," said Akino of Societe General fxstreet.com

To: orkrious who wrote (11124)	8/28/2004 7:21:19 PM
From: arun gera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

>America today, saves virtually nothing> I hear this all the time. Is the money invested in homes counted as savings? -Arun

To: orkrious who wrote (11124)	8/29/2004 10:12:19 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

I really believe this is a "misnomer" >>Under a gold-silver coin and backed currency, no deficit, no fractional reserve banking system, I'll guarantee you there would be individual, church, and voluntary help for the needy, but no forced charity, as is the income tax. Everything economic, would be on a voluntary basis, with no creating 'money' out of thin air, loaning 'money,' with none necessarily on deposit, and paying government bills with printing press 'money.' If a person were poor, he could get a job, fail, beg, or even die, but no federal government handouts. No Social Security, no federal backing of anything, except the dollars, which would be backed 100% with gold and silver, no matter who issues them, and coins being made out of the same. << Income tax isn't so much about redistribution among citizens as it is about keeping citizens from controlling too many real assets -- in competition with the state. Can you imagine what would happen if withholding were repealed -- don't change the tax rates -- just repeal withholding ... can you imagine folks having to write a check for all of their income tax at the end of the year?? Our government is soooo good to us -- taking it out from the get-go ...I mean, spendthrifts that we are ... <s> How high was the duty on tea when the "patriots" jumped on the ships at night and started throwing it overboard?? We need some revolutionary thinking again in the US ... The funny thing about the corruption of our money and tax system (really one and the same) -- is -- you won't find too many people that are truly ignorant of this -- but most folk think either 1) it's a power beyond their control or 2) something you just have to live with to get along. In the next few years, it will be interesting to see what other kinds of outlandish propositions people will be willing to swallow to be protected from the terrorists ...