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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (18241)	9/1/2004 9:14:44 AM
From: posthumousone	Respond to of 110194

hmmmmm, i just received a letter from polymer supplier that do to unprecedent raw matl price increases, they are forced to increase their prices to us.......who would have gueesed that...........

To: russwinter who wrote (18241)	9/1/2004 9:20:11 AM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Arnold, the bond floating man. Can you say sell out. Or maybe when you have 100s of millions it is hard to see the reality. UFB his comment, already the perfect politician after he raise what 15B with a bond issue. ----- Delegates interrupted his speech with chants of "USA! USA!" and roared their approval when he derided those who contend that the economy is in trouble as "economic girlie men."

To: russwinter who wrote (18241)	9/1/2004 9:25:30 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

WASHINGTON, D.C. (September 1, 2004)—The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 27. The Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications - a measure of mortgage loan applications - was 642.7, a decrease of 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 646.3 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased by 1.9 percent compared with last week but was up 2.6 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. The MBA seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 0.1 percent to 443.1 from 443.7 the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Refinance Index decreased by 1.1 percent to 1804.1 from 1824.9 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity included the Conventional Index, which decreased 0.3 percent to 950.2 from 953.5 the previous week. The Government Index decreased 3.1 percent to 129.6 from 133.8 the previous week. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 40.7 percent of total applications from 40.4 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 33.1 percent of total applications from 32.1 percent the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.75 percent from 5.78 percent one week earlier, with points decreasing to 1.32 from 1.37 the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.11 percent from 5.13 percent one week earlier, with points decreasing to 1.31 from 1.38 the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs decreased to 3.79 percent from 3.90 percent one week earlier, with points decreasing to 1.07 from 1.12 from the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

To: russwinter who wrote (18241)	9/1/2004 12:13:15 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Inventories rose to 51.7 percent in August from 49.9 percent in July. This is the highest level since January 2000 "It is not backup of inventories. It is probably a very positive inventory build at this point, trying to maintain service levels, as opposed to a signal that we need to be concerned," Ore said Message 20473821

To: russwinter who wrote (18241)	9/1/2004 2:22:29 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

RUSS: your thoughts on this chart please? ttrader.com

To: russwinter who wrote (18241)	9/2/2004 10:10:52 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 110194

Russ: Probably the #1 reinsurer to short would be Converium (a spin off of Zurich Financial a couple of years ago). They are financially weak and this can potentially eliminate any surplus they have. I'm sure Munich Re (via its American Re sub) and Swiss Re will also take hits but they are stronger financially.

To: russwinter who wrote (18241)	9/2/2004 10:14:47 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ: One other note this Hurricane has the potential to firm up the reinsurance property market (which has been weak). Since Hurricane Andrew as reinsurers raised rates the financial houses came out with CAT bonds as an alternative to reinsurance (where the insurers (and reinsurers) issue bonds @ high coupon rates). Now all of a sudden the CAT Bond investors who have been earning 12 to 18% are going to learn the underlying risk (they will lose principle and interest) is greater than they thought. So sometime in October it may be good to invest in some selected reinsurers.