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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (11254)	9/1/2004 11:10:59 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

DIW widens German public deficit forecasts, sees 2005 stability pact breach Wednesday, September 1, 2004 6:56:25 AM FRANKFURT (AFX) - The Deutsche Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), one of Germany's six leading institutes for economic research, has widened its forecasts for the country's public deficit this year and next DIW now expects Germany to post a deficit of 3.9 pct of GDP for 2004, up from its previous forecast of 3.7 pct, and of 3.3 pct in 2005, up from 3.2 pct, DIW financial expert Dieter Vesper told the Handelsblatt newspaper Finance Minister Hans Eichel yesterday notified the EU Commission that he expects this year's public deficit to amount to 3.7 pct of GDP Eichel also reiterated he wants to bring the deficit back in line with the stability and growth pact limit of 3 pct of GDP in 2005 Should Germany breach the limit in 2005, it will do so for the fourth successive year

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (11254)	9/1/2004 11:16:00 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. ISM factory index slows in August - Wednesday, September 1, 2004 3:09:44 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Factory activity in the United States decelerated in August, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday. The ISM index fell to 59.0 percent in August from 62.0 percent in July. Last month's decline in the closely followed index came in slightly below expectations. Economists had been looking for the ISM survey to fall to 59.8 percent, according to a survey by CBS MarketWatch. But Josh Shapiro, chief economist at MFR Inc., said the decline wasn't as bad as some economists had feared after a survey index of purchasing managers in the Chicago area fell sharply on Tuesday. Before August, the ISM had been above 60 percent for nine straight months, marking the longest period of growth above this level since 1972 Norbert Ore, head of the ISM's research committee, said he thought the ISM index had peaked and won't return to an above-60 reading in the near future "In terms of rate of growth, we've probably seen the peak for quite some time. But that doesn't mean that the manufacturing sector is in any type of major downturn at this point," Ore said Within the ISM data, new orders fell to 61.2 percent in August from 64.7 percent in July. The employment index fell to 55.7 percent in August from 57.3 percent. Production slipped to 59.5 percent from 66.1 percent in July "Overall, the sector is still quite positive as both new orders and production remain at high levels," Ore said Prices paid rose to 81.5 percent from July's 77.0 percent Inventories rose to 51.7 percent in August from 49.9 percent in July. This is the highest level since January 2000 "It is not backup of inventories. It is probably a very positive inventory build at this point, trying to maintain service levels, as opposed to a signal that we need to be concerned," Ore said [A very positive inventory build - uh huh - mish] Seventeen of 20 industries were growing in August, according to the ISM data Separately, U.S. construction spending rose 0.4 percent in July, a little better than the market expected.

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (11254)	9/1/2004 11:18:03 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

PMI Summary hmmmm - Is there a trend here? U.S. Aug. ISM manufacturing 59.0% vs. 59.8% expected WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Factory activity in the United States decelerated in August, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday. The ISM index fell to 59.0 percent in August from 62.0 percent in July. ============================================================ UK Aug manufacturing PMI comes in below forecast at 53.1 LONDON (AFX) - Manufacturing sector activity in the UK fell sharply below expectations at 53.1 in August compared with 56.3 the previous month, according to sources. Consensus estimates had predicted a much smaller dip to 56.0. ============================================================ German Aug manufacturing PMI 55.1 vs 56.6 in July FRANKFURT (AFX) - The manufacturing sector purchasing managers' index for August fell to a seasonally adjusted 55.1 from 56.6 in July, according to market sources Economists polled by AFX News forecast a dip to 56.1 in August ======================================================================== RPT French Aug manufacturing PMI 54 vs 54.6 in July PARIS (AFX) - The French manufacturing sector purchasing managers' index fell to a seasonally adjusted 54 in August from 54.6 in July, according to market sources ========================================================================= Italy Aug manufacturing PMI 52.3 vs 52.6 in July MILAN (AFX) - The Italian manufacturing sector purchasing managers' index fell to a seasonally adjusted 52.3 in August from 52.6 in July, according to market sources. ====================================================================== Euro zone Aug manufacturing PMI dips below forecast to 53.9 LONDON (AFX) - The Euro zone manufacturing sector purchasing managers' index fell below expectations to a seasonally adjusted 53.9 in August, from 54.7 in July, according to market sources. Markets had been expecting a smaller dip to 54.3.