Electoral College Projections Based Upon Most Recent Rasmussen Reports Survey Data and Election 2000 Results
Election 2004
Electoral College Bush 213 Kerry 207 Toss-Up 118 RasmussenReports.com
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 29, 2004--On the eve of the Republican National Convention, for the first time all year, George W. Bush moved ahead of John Kerry in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projection. Neither man, however, can yet count on the 270 Electoral Votes needed for victory in November.
The latest numbers show Bush leading in states with 213 Electoral Votes while Kerry is ahead in states with 207. There are 118 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up column.
Over this past weekend, Arkansas, Virginia and Missouri moved from Toss-Up to Leans Bush.
Minnesota moved from Leans Kerry to Toss-Up.
Maine and Michigan moved in Kerry's direction--from Toss-Up to Leans Kerry.
This latest projection is based upon a series of new state election polls from Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio. Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin
At Rasmussen Reports, we consider any state where polls show a candidate leading by less than five percentage points to be a toss-up. Feel free to review our state-by-state listing and share your comments.
Beginning September 1, Rasmussen Reports will expand our Tracking Poll to 1,000 Likely Voters per night. At the same time, we will increase the flow of information provided both on the public site and for our Premium Members.
Premium Service during the final two months of the campaign will include daily tracking for Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania along with weekly updates for 15 states. We will also provide frequent updates for many other states and key Senate races. Details on the Premium Member enhancements will be released this weekend.
State data will be provided for the public site on a regular, but less frequent, basis.
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