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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (11268)	9/1/2004 5:50:50 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 116555

Date: Wed Sep 01 2004 17:07 trotsky (frustrated@crude) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved the rumor i referred to came into print yesterday - so presumably it could have referred to the action after the last CoT cut-off date. btw, even so, the last CoT report has some 2,600 contracts added to the fund gross shorts - also, an overall fund net long position of less than 30,000 contracts is nothing in what appears to be a raging bull market. note that historically, the fund net long position can expand to much bigger size, in the 80-90,000 contracts region. iow, the bull market in crude is likely very much intact, now that the break-out support level has been successfully tested. also, if you recall, there have always been two major fibo targets in view for this leg - one was $45, the other $60/bbl. technically speaking, the fact that 45 has been surpassed by quite a margin at the recent highs, is a tip-off that the next target becomes feasible. contrary to reams of mainstream opinion ( which is almost universally bearish - only traders very close to the market seem to be bullish ) , i think this is also a fundamentally viable target. the world needs and demands a certain amount of crude, almost irrespective of price. the major lesson of the 70's experience was: only EXTREME moves in price lead to a curtailment of demand, and even then, it takes some time to become apparent. sure, the recent correction may not be over just yet...short term moves are notoriously difficult to predict. but longer term this bull market isn't over yet imo.