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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11333)	9/2/2004 2:13:23 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

W O R L D W I D E____D E P R E S S I O N

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11333)	9/2/2004 2:33:02 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Monster Employment Index Shows Jump in Online Job Demand in August NEW YORK --(Business Wire)-- Sept. 2, 2004 -- Monster Worldwide (NASDAQ:MNST): -- Index Resumes Upward Trend, Reaching Highest Level Since its Inception, Indicating Strong, Sustained Growth in Online Job Demand -- Manufacturing Among Industries Showing Greatest Increase in Online Job Availability -- Nearly Every Occupational Category Up Over Last Month Overall demand for workers and related online job recruitment activity across the United States grew in August, as the Monster Employment Index reached its highest level since its inception. Rebounding off a slight decline in July, the Index resumed its upward trend in August, reflecting continued strength in U.S. online job availability. Overall, the Index rose to 145 in August from 134 in July. Results for the first eight months of 2004 are as follows: August July June May April March February January 145 134 136 128 125 109 107 102 tmcnet.com ============================================================ Now why are Monster job postings up in the face of falling jobs the last 4 months? What if companies no longer want to pay finders fees to headhunters so they just post the job themselves on Monster rather than going to a recruiter? Would that do it or is there some other explanation such as job growth is stronger than it seems or that it will soon be. The latter does not seem likely to me. Mish

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11333)	9/2/2004 3:13:43 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Some Thoughts from Brian Reynolds on Minyanville This is my paraphrasing...... production has outpaced consumption all year. this led to spectular but unsustainable GDP numbers. inventories have had biggest rise since 1999. three outcomes 1) consumption accelerates 2) no change 3) production slows #1 is unlikely with consumers so leveraged. cash holdings at companies are way up but there will be a slew of debt maturities coming due in 2006 #2 would be nice looking for GDP but the resulting inventory imbalance would cause a recession and a deeper decline than otherwise #3 production slowing is best outcome for the economy payrolls given the order drop in xhicago PMI, philly fed, etc etc etc a sustained strong payroll surge for th rest of 2004 is not likely. A strong print tomorrow will likely be an abberation brian gave some targets but todays bond trashing would negate them IMO, but the numbers he was looking at suggested above 200 or 250 to get a strong negative reaction. on the downside 100 might bring the tnx down to 4.0 (but that was from yesterdays levels before taday's selloff occurred). refis Brian has been surprised by refi index, expecting to see the levels at 3000 after this drop in treasury yields but instead it is at 2000. Bond managers are reluctant to bid for bonds around trigger points and Brian speculates that he and others might have been wrong as to what it will take for a trigger of new refis to kick in more refis. If that is the case yields could move 10-15 basis points lower before refis kick in. All in all he thinks the odds are skewed towards lower yields, not higher yields tomorrow. Mish