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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (18327)	9/2/2004 6:17:28 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Respond to of 110194

Inventory is not yet high here in Los Angeles. When the market feels cold, sellers pull their homes off the market. One anecdotal story I've been following is a couple who bought a $691k condo in Beverly Hills before they sold their larger condo in the Franklin Towers at Franklin and La Brea. I reviewed an appraisal of the Franklin place two years ago at $532k, so I know that price was right. Recent comps in that building from May 2004 indicated a value of $640k. After four months on the market they have received an all-cash offer at $500k and an offer contingent on a prior sale of $525k which failed once it became clear the prior home would not sell anytime soon. The most recent offer was for $535k which fell out of escrow last week. At this point only the $500k offer remains. Of course they bought the new condo with a combination of three short-term higher interest "bridge loans" which in time will eat them alive, especially when they come due shortly and have to be renegotiated. The sellers are in a panic. Because they refinanced and spent over the past seven years, if they sell at $500k they will have no equity. That means no down-payment for the permanent financing on their new place. Actually it's a little more complicated since they have 20% equity in their new place but will need to access it somehow to pay off the loan on the old place - if sold at $500k. This couple serve as my personal "canaries in a coal mine". About the time they die financially, the fun should be starting.

To: ild who wrote (18327)	9/3/2004 12:29:34 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

State Street will be marketing agent for gold ETF investors.com BOSTON (CBS.MW) -- State Street Global Markets, a Delaware limited liability company and a wholly-owned subsidiary of State Street Corp., will be the marketing agent for a gold exchange-traded fund sponsored by the World Gold Council, according to an SEC filing. According to previous filings, the ETF was to be named Equity Gold Trust, but the name has been changed to streetTRACKS Gold Trust. StreetTRACKS is the brand name of several ETFs managed by Boston-based State Street Global Advisors. The expense ratio has been increased from the previous 0.3 percent to 0.4 percent, according to the filing. Barclays Global Investors has also filed a gold ETF with the SEC to be called iShares COMEX Gold Trust. Both ETFs are designed to reflect the price of gold owned by the trust, less the expenses of the trust's operations. Pending regulatory approval, streetTRACKS Gold Trust is slated to trade on the New York Stock Exchange, while the BGI offering would trade on the American Stock Exchange. Both ETFs will be structured as grantor investment trusts, not as registered investment companies, and the Bank of New York would be the trustee for both. The ETFs will pay their fees by selling off small amounts of gold bullion that has been traded for ETF shares. In other words, the fractional amount of physical gold represented by each share will decrease over the life of the trust. See full story. If they are approved, the ETFs will allow ordinary U.S. investors to invest directly in gold bullion. In 2003 the first gold ETF, Gold Bullion Securities, began trading on the Australian Stock Exchange. It also now trades on the London Stock Exchange. Form S-1 REGISTRATION STATEMENT UNDER THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933 streetTRACKS® GOLD TRUST sec.gov

To: ild who wrote (18327)	9/3/2004 3:50:24 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

I looked at the numbers and talked to some agents regarding home inventory in Los Angeles. We have suddenly built inventory and more importantly seen a sharp decline in sales in the hillside areas. On the CLAW Map (Combined Los Angeles Westside MLS) these are areas 4, 2, 3, and 30. Expand the map fully to be able to make out the details. home.pacbell.net Although the inventory in other areas is not unusually high, it is far higher than when this bubble began. In 1998 at this time of year, Area 10 in West Hollywood had no available Single Family Homes compared with 36 this evening. There were 30 Condos available in 1998 compared with 97 Condos now. So there has been a slow inventory build over time.