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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (18355)	9/3/2004 12:41:02 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

trotsky (Chicken man@Argentina) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved the Argentine buying was specifically designed to bolster and diversify its central bank's reserves. this gold is off the market for good for the foreseeable future. Argentina has learned the hard way that relying solely on dollars as a reserve asset can be a sobering experience. especially when combining a currency board with a fractional reserve banking system and allowing the government to use the perceived stability of said board to indulge in an unckecked orgy of borrowing abroad. of course, Argentina is hardly the only culprit when it comes to borrowing vast, unpayable sums from foreign investors in order to finance consumption. Date: Fri Sep 03 2004 12:14 trotsky (siempre@Murphy) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i admit he's not all bad, or rather, as you have observed, many of his fellow travellers offer valuable research. but i dislike his tendency to make exaggerated claims and think his aggressive tone and mode of presentation hurts the cause of gold rather than helping it. that said, the Midas commentary is always an interesting read, even if one is not always on the same page with Murphy. Date: Fri Sep 03 2004 11:57 trotsky (Eldorado@fundamentals) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved unfortunately what is probably THE major fundamental driver of gold prices has not yet improved - the yield spread. it keeps flattening, and we need it to widen again. i suspect that will happen in qu.4, but it hasn't happened yet. and it's definitely more important than alleged mystery buyers in Asia, or icy rocks flying through space millions of miles away. the seasonally strong period is also no assurance of rising prices - it merely creates a floor via physical demand from the trade. for prices to move higher, investment demand must rise, and that depends mostly on the yield spread ( the yield spread being an indicator of the degree of monetary looseness of the Fed ) .

To: ild who wrote (18355)	9/3/2004 2:48:18 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

In 1990 hillside homes declined first and the most. When real estate appreciates they start at the lowest base, appreciate later in the cycle and ultimately appreciate the most, percentage wise. Hillside homes are generally less desirable. While it's all well and good to have a view, traveling a winding road for 20 minutes just to reach Sunset Blvd or the nearest grocery store gets old. Those homes which require Laurel Canyon for access are particularly problematic. During commute times it may take 10 or 15 minutes just to reach the turn-off for your winding road - and likewise the reverse should you have forgotten to get milk at the store. You either wait until after 7:15 or add an extra 15 minutes to your trip to the store. Once the homes lower down have appreciated, buyers who have never lived in the hills can't believe their good fortune that these homes with the killer view are actually less expensive and in their price range! Some hillside areas actually become more expensive at the top of the price cycle, than homes lower down. After the hillsides have attracted a new batch of novice hillside owners, it takes a couple of years for them to become thoroughly disenchanted.