From Washington Dispatch.com...
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Commentary
The Bush Shift
Commentary by Chad Allen
September 3, 2004
In sports, the phrase “it’s all about momentum” is oftentimes heard, as teams that capture momentum in a game can erase huge deficits or turn a close game into a rather lopsided victory. Momentum is every bit as important in politics and, prior to the Republican Convention this week, the data showed that overall momentum is clearly on the side of President Bush in his reelection bid. Of even greater note, are the areas in which the momentum has shifted to President Bush from Senator Kerry.
On the political modeling front, President Bush is looking quite strong. Political modelers use a series of economic, social, and political variables and through mathematics and regression attempt to predict the outcome of an election.
This week in Chicago at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, six professors and political modelers were to participate in a roundtable discussion. Each of the six professors, using their models, predicts that President Bush will win 51% up to nearly 55% of the popular vote. Noted Yale economic and political modeler, Ray C. Fair, predicts an even greater 57.5% of the popular vote for Bush. Mr. Fair’s model, when applied in retrospect to the past 22 presidential elections since World War I, has accurately predicted the winner on 19 occasions, or in 86% of the elections.
What does the market have to say about Bush’s current position in the race? One of the best market-based predictors of political outcomes is the political future trading at the University of Iowa’s Electronic Markets. In this real-money market, individuals are able to trade futures on certain economic and political events. For the “presidential winner-take-all” futures, the candidate’s “future” price is reflective of the likely popular vote he would receive. Since August 13 when Senator Kerry’s future traded at 50, his future has never again reached 50 and as of the end of August it was at 47. President Bush’s future, which dipped to 49.1 on August 13, has steadily climbed and at the end of August was at 54.
Another well-known market for trading futures on political and social events is the Dublin-based Intrade Exchange. On the question of whether George W. Bush will be elected President, Bush’s future traded at 58 this week, while John Kerry’s was at 43. In fact, Kerry’s future, which was initiated in January, has been trending towards a new lifetime low. However, Bush’s future is on an upward trend.
If you believe in the mantra held closely by most on Wall Street that the financial markets, which include futures on equities, commodities, and currency rates, are always right, then you have to say that the political market is ahead of the curve verses the polling data. However, even the polling data are trending more favorably towards President Bush.
On the eve of the Republican National Convention, the highly regarded Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projection put George W. Bush ahead of Senator John Kerry for the first time this year. Bush stands at 213 electoral votes, while Kerry has 207 votes with 118 votes to close to call.
Looking at the contest on an issue by issue basis, Bush is also seeing strong upward movement. In an ABC News/Washington Post poll taken last week, both John Kerry and George Bush carried 48% of the respondents’ votes, all of which were labeled as likely voters. However, Kerry’s strength on several issues showed dramatic erosion.
On the issue of who registered voters trusted more, Kerry led bush by 52-41 on August 1, but a 12-point swing has allowed Bush to pull ahead to hold a 48-47 advantage as of late August. Senator Kerry has also seen a 13-point net loss on the education issue, a 12-point loss on healthcare, and an eight-point loss on taxes.
The poll also indicated disturbing trends for Kerry among specific voter groups. Kerry had held a 50-44 advantage among registered voters on August 1, but Bush has closed the gap and now leads Kerry 48-47, again these are pre-convention numbers. Among women voters, Kerry has lost 11 points in the last month and six points among men.
For Bush, the poll shows that he has gained significant ground verses Kerry on what most consider his weakest issue, the economy. Bush has added seven points among all respondents, 13 among seniors, and a whopping 15 points among respondents in battleground states.
In fact the battleground state data are especially troubling for the Kerry camp. While Kerry’s favorability rating has dropped eight points overall, the poll shows that it had declined 14 points among those in battleground dates. The data may be indicative of Kerry struggling in his quest to capture the undecided voter in these key states.
Even democratic strategists have acknowledged the trend in recent days. In a polling memo from Democracy Corps, a group led by James Carville, the group stated that Bush appears to be making inroads versus Kerry.
How has the Bush shift occurred? While the Swift Boat ads and book have certainly played a part, perhaps the shift is due in large par to the Bush team’s early and primary focus on its base, Christian conservatives. In an article in Monday’s Wall Street Journal, it was noted how campaign strategist Karl Rove made Christian conservatives the focus very early in the campaign, realizing that they were not only the most likely to actually vote on Election Day, but that they also would provide an enormous among of foot soldiers.
Apparently the strategy is working. Even though the Republican Convention has included Rudy Giuliani, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and New York Governor George Pataki, all of whom are pro-abortion and in favor of same-sex unions, Christian conservatives appear to remain happy and loyal. The Chairman of the Christian conservative group, Traditional Values Coalition, who is at the Convention, recently spoke about the moderate speaker list, “Their talk is for the independent people watching on television.”
If Christian conservatives remain happy and Bush receives any sizable Convention Bounce, then the predictions of political modelers may be quite prophetic.
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Chad Allen is a Christian Conservative living in America's Heartland where he writes political and social commentary. Mr. Allen has been published in Insight Magazine and various online magazines. Mr. Allen holds an MBA from Southern Illinois University.
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