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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (11495)	9/7/2004 10:56:43 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

The current B/D model (method) is based on the unemployment insurance roles. You suggested that FICA would be more accurate, I was simply pointing out that FICA is less accurate and less timely. Grace, All I know is thet the current method is EXTREMELY flawed. The B/D model is based on PAST recoveries. Past recoveries did NOT have a USABLE glut of worldwide labor. Past recoveries did NOT have an internet, and did not have such a pathetic expansion of jobs in th eface of all time low interest rates. Past recoveries did not have a potential passing of the economic torch to China. The B/D model based on past performance is SEVERELY flawed. I suspect that even a LAGGING FICA model would be better than the 1,000,000 job gain BS that we see based on the B/D model. Do you have ANY doubt that a) it will be revised down or b) the job gains are part time at close to minimum wage or c) the job gains are people selling stuff on EBAY on a wing and a prayer Yes .... I am saying THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT Jobs suck jobs will continue to suck UNTIL outsourcing has reached its final OVERconclusion. That might take another 5 years. Who knows? The bottom line is this: The current B/D model sucks. It does not recognize GLOBAL economics. Past B/D models did NOT have to factor in such changes. I suspects as lagging as it might be, FICA is a better way to go. I expect differences of opinion. If you have a better way than the current B/D model lets hear it. If you think this recvovery is like all others then I say point blank: you are full of shit. I respect your opinion but lets see it. There has to be a better way than B/D even if my proposal of FICA sucks the wazoo. M