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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bentway who wrote (620078)	9/8/2004 2:24:03 PM
From: tejek	Respond to of 769670

posted September 6, 2004, updated 11:30 a.m. Report: Civil war most likely outcome in Iraq Major British institute says breakup of Iraq is a likely scenario. by Tom Regan \| csmonitor.com While America's attention was focused last week on the Republican National Convention in New York, and the world was watching the hostage tragedy unfold in the small Russian town of Beslan, the prestigious British Royal Institute of International Affairs (known as Chatham House) issued a report saying a major civil war that would destablize the entire Middle East region is the mostly likely outcome for Iraq if current conditions continue. Reuters reported Friday that the report said the best outcome Iraq can hope for is "to muddle through an 18-month political transition that began when Washington formally handed over sovereignty on June 28." The Los Angeles Times reports that the fragmentation of Iraq is the "default scenario" in the eyes of the Chatham House team. 'Under this scenario,' the report says, 'Kurdish separatism and Shia assertiveness work against a smooth transition to elections, while the Sunni Arab minority remains on the offensive and engaged in resistance. Antipathy to the US presence grows, not so much in a unified Iraqi nationalist backlash, but rather in a fragmented manner that could presage civil war if the US cuts and runs,' it says. 'Even if the US forces try to hold out and prop up the central authority, it may still lose control.' The Chatham House report, called 'Iraq in Transition: Vortex or Catalyst?' was released last Wednesday. (Chatham House is often the scene of regular international news events; British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw recently gave a major speech there in August where he called for the overhaul of the United Nations.) The organization's Middle East team came up with three possible scenarios for Iraq, two of which would create real problems for the US and its allies: If the Shiite, Sunni, and Kurd factions fail to adhere to the Iraqi Interim Government (IIG), Iraq could fragment or descend into civil war. continued............. csmonitor.com