Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (11552)	9/9/2004 9:42:22 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

ECB says oil price not fully justified by fundamentals Thursday, September 9, 2004 10:42:26 AM FRANKFURT (AFX) - The European Central Bank said the current level of oil prices is not fully justified by oil market fundamentals "The current level of oil prices contains a sizeable 'premium' that cannot be accounted for by the tightness in oil market fundamentals," the ECB said in its September monthly bulletin It said global demand and supply concerns have played a big part in the oil price rise, and global spare capacity has shrunk considerably, leaving only a very limited cushion in the event of unexpected supply disruptions But these factors cannot explain all of the rise in oil prices, it said The ECB said market participants expect oil prices to remain high throughout the remainder of the year It said euro zone stock markets were badly affected by the rise in oil prices in July and August, with concerns focussing on the impact of oil prices on economic growth, earnings expectations and input prices The oil price rise has also boosted inflation, which has been stuck above the ECB's target range since April But the ECB said moderate wage increases will help contain inflation in the medium term Growth in negotiated wages slowed to 2.2 pct year-on-year in the second quarter from 2.3 pct in the first quarter, and an annual average of 2.4 pct last year and 2.7 pct in 2002 And unit labour cost growth slowed to 0.9 pct in the first quarter, compared with an annual average of 2.0 pct last year and 2.2 pct the year before. Available evidence suggests that it remained subdued in the second quarter, the ECB said The decline in unit labour cost growth reflects stronger productivity growth and "should exert downward pressure on inflation", it said

To: KyrosL who wrote (11552)	9/9/2004 9:47:40 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

IEA says oil mkt jittery but well supplied, sees crude prices falling UPDATE Thursday, September 9, 2004 9:18:29 AM (updates with comments on supply, prices, Russian output) PARIS (AFX) - The global oil market remains jittery and driven by short-term factors, but it is currently also well supplied and thus unlikely to sustain prices above 40 usd per barrel in the longer term, the International Energy Agency said In its September monthly report, the Paris-based organisation said it expects rising inventories to cushion against possible supply disruptions into the autumn, and held its demand forecast unchanged for 2004 while trimming it slightly for 2005 "The market remains jittery and is seeking direction ... Short-term phenomena are driving the market as fundamentals do not change that quickly," the IEA said Oil prices remain sensitive to supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, but rising inventories "should provide a cushion" ahead of autumn refinery maintenance "(So) while not underestimating the realities of limited spare production and refining capacity, ... today's market is well supplied with crude." The IEA projected world demand at 82.16 mln barrels per day for the current year and at 83.92 mln for 2005, slightly down from the prediction in its August report Overall demand growth is set to slow in the second half of 2004 after gains of 5 pct in the second quarter, the agency said In August, world supply increased by 300,000 bpd to 83.6 mln, with a 150,000 decline in non-OPEC output offset by a 450,000 rise in OPEC crudes and derivatives August OPEC crude supply averaged out at 29.3 mln bpd, a rise of 410,000 from July, driven by a 300,000 increase from cartel kingpin Saudi Arabia The IEA projects the call on OPEC's output at 27.6 mln for both 2004 and 2005, with respective fourth quarter peaks of 28.3 mln and 28.8 mln "The current spare (OPEC) capacity position can be best characterised as tight, albeit likely to ease over time," it said Some market watchers are predicting a crude market with sustained prices above 40 usd per barrel, based on the notion that supply and demand no longer respond to price, that governments are helpless in pursuing energy policies and that demand in China will grow unchecked. "Perhaps, but we have our doubts. What is clear for now is that supply is running ahead of demand and stocks are building," the report said Furthermore, while geopolitical risks remain a concern, they are no greater today than they were in the past. August data for Russia, for instance, showed that, despite the increasing problems besetting flagship company Yukos, production still managed to rise to 9.35 mln bpd, 45,000 up on July and 675,000 higher than August last year. In July, OECD industry stocks rose by 18 mln barrels, while days of forward demand cover came to 53 in July, unchanged from upwardly revised June cover, it said fxstreet.com

To: KyrosL who wrote (11552)	9/9/2004 9:52:04 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

ECB says ´strong vigilance´ needed on inflation risks UPDATE Thursday, September 9, 2004 9:01:17 AM ECB says 'strong vigilance' needed on inflation risks UPDATE (updating with comments on inflation outlook) FRANKFURT (AFX) - The European Central Bank said it needs to show "strong vigilance" over inflation risks in the euro zone The central bank's economic and monetary analysis "supports the case for strong vigilance with regard to the materialisation of risks to price stability", the ECB said in its September monthly bulletin The ECB also reiterated its view that the rules of the EU stability and growth pact should not be changed but that scope exists for improvements in the implementation of the rules "The governing council remains convinced that there is no need for changes to the text of the treaty and of the stability and growth pact. The pact is an appropriate framework for dealing with countries' fiscal developments on a level playing field. At the same time, the governing council considers that improvements could be introduced in the implementation of the pact," it said The EU Commission last week proposed a reform of the pact which would give governments more budget flexibility in times of economic difficulty The ECB's comments on the pact echo remarks made by ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet in his introductory statement to last Thursday's ECB news conference, the day before the Commission unveiled its proposals for reform of the pact On Tuesday the Bundesbank criticised the Commission's proposals, saying they would weaken the pact In the bulletin, the ECB also reiterated that it still expects inflation to come into line with its price stability goal of a rate below but close to 2 pct in the medium term It said there are no indications at present of strong underlying inflation pressures building up domestically and inflation should drop below 2 pct in 2005. Euro zone inflation is currently running at 2.3 pct But it said some inflation risks exist, particularly relating to the high level of oil prices. The risk that oil prices could push wages and other prices higher will intensify as the economic upswing strengthens, it said However, oil prices also represent a downside risk for the growth outlook. if oil prices were to remain higher than currently expected by markets, this could dampen both domestic and foreign demand, it said fxstreet.com

To: KyrosL who wrote (11552)	9/9/2004 9:54:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Kyros, A quarter of the price today. Back when Ford was buying palladium like a drunken sailor, but without that much sense, it went to a premium to platinum. Palladium is a huge bargain today, especially with the Chinese wanting to export cars to the USA.

To: KyrosL who wrote (11552)	9/9/2004 9:57:20 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK records first monthly oil deficit since August 1991 during July 2004 Thursday, September 9, 2004 8:55:02 AM LONDON (AFX) - The UK's trade position deteriorated further in July as the country sucked in more imports, mainly of oil, than it has ever done before in a single month, official figures showed today The office of National Statistics said the UK's deficit in goods increased to 5.2 bln stg in July, up from 5.1 bln the previous month The main reason behind the move was news that the UK recorded its first oil deficit since August 1991 and its highest oil deficit since January 1991 News of the deficit may raise fears about the impact of high oil prices on the economy as well as longer-term concerns about the depletion of the UK's oil assets in the North Sea The oil deficit stood at 61 mln stg in July compared with the 193 mln surplus the previous month The spokesman at the statistics office provided no reason for the deterioration in the oil balance but suggested that it was a combination of the surging oil prices and higher volumes However, he said it was not inconceivable that the oil deficit may be revised into a surplus in upcoming months. Similar revisions have taken place in previous months this year, he noted Nevertheless, the spokesman said higher imports of petroleum products pushed the overall level of monthly imports to their highest monthly level since records began in 1697 Total imports hit a record high of 27.0 bln stg during the month while imports of goods hit a monthly high of 20.8 bln. Imports from EU countries rose by 1 pct, while imports from non-EU countries increased by 2-1/2 pct A geographic look at the trade in goods deficit shows that the non-EU shortfall was unchanged month-on-month at 2.7 bln stg, as was the EU deficit at 2.4 bln A wider measure of the trade position, which also includes services, shows that the UK's deficit increased to 3.7 bln stg in July from 3.4 bln stg in June Over the three months ending July, the deficit on trade in goods and services worseneed to 10 bln stg from 8.1 bln in the previous three months, while the goods deficit hit a record 15.0 bln stg from 13.3 bln during the previous three months The statistics office said the latest estimate of the trend suggests that the UK trade deficits in goods and goods and services are widening fxstreet.com