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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (11555)	9/9/2004 9:54:30 AM
From: TH	Respond to of 116555

Tommaso, I find him very informative. I consider myself extremely fortunate to have access/awareness of SI; this thread and a couple others in particular are a better source of real information that 99% of the "public" media. Before SI I was a complete mushroom! Good Trading TH Living in the dark on bulls**t. Only a partial mushroom now -g-

To: Tommaso who wrote (11555)	9/9/2004 10:16:49 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Is Greenspan too sunny? Wednesday, September 8, 2004 6:55:33 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) - Put Alan Greenspan firmly in the camp that believes, as President Bush says so often, the U.S. economy is strong and getting stronger In testimony to the House Budget Committee on Wednesday, Greenspan said he believes "the expansion has regained some traction" after hitting a soft patch in the late spring. For Greenspan, the soft patch is all in the past: Consumer spending "bounced back" in July, he said. "Business investment remains on a solid upward trend." And perhaps most important: "Employment growth picked back up in August." Even some of Wall Street's most optimistic economists say Greenspan went too far. The facts so far just don't justify his optimism, they said "We would love to concur but to our eyes there are only the faintest glimmers thus far of an end to the 'soft patch,'" said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. The Beige Book, released a few hours after Greenspan spoke, also undercut Greenspan's rosy view. While the expansion continued in August, "several districts indicated that the pace had slowed," the Beige Book said. Household spending, in particular, had weakened, the Fed staff report said "Greenspan's comment that 'early readings on retail sales in August have been mixed' is baffling," Shepherdson said. "The chain store data were terrible" in August The chain store sales weren't any better in the first week of September, with year-over-year growth slowing to 2.1 percent, the lowest in 14 months. Auto sales held up in August as well, but the major automakers cut back their production plans for the fall Other economists said Greenspan's assessment was just right. "It has become clearer that consumer spending this quarter is expanding considerably more rapidly than the subdued 1.6 percent annualized pace" in the second quarter, said Peter Kretzmer, senior economist for Bank of America. "We currently estimate 3.4 percent consumer spending growth and 3.9 percent GDP growth" for the fourth quarter Greenspan's conclusion that job creation "picked up" again in August was 'a very glass half-full view of the 144,000 gain," said Steve Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital "He emphasized the positive more than I expected," said Stu Hoffman, chief economist for PNC, who, until Greenspan spoke, had been calling for the Federal Open Market Committee to pause in September to wait for better economic data Greenspan's testimony ended all such talk of a pause in September. The federal funds futures market is now pricing in a 92 percent chance of a rate hike between now and Halloween. Greenspan laid the blame for the "soft patch" squarely on the spike in energy prices in the late spring and summer. Oil prices have eased somewhat, which should remove one hurdle to faster growth. "He gave himself cover" by saying the path of energy prices is uncertain ahead, said Avery Shenfeld, an economist for CIBC World Markets Shenfeld said Greenspan may have another reason for his public optimism: Politics "If the chairman were to say anything too negative about the economy, the Democrats would be all over that," Shenfeld said. While Greenspan is a long-time Republican, the Fed itself tries to remain independent of politics. "He doesn't want to become THE issue," Shenfeld said "Whether he's too optimistic, only time will tell," Hoffman said. "The ingredients for faster growth are falling into place," he said, noting that long-term interest rates have come down, the stock market had a good month, oil prices have fallen, and money supply is growing fxstreet.com

To: Tommaso who wrote (11555)	9/9/2004 11:13:24 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

From ED on the FOOL on the last housing bust I was selling a house in New Orleans after the oil crash in the early '80's. The once-roaring local economy was going down the tubes. Rates were falling, so were house prices. I dropped my price every week until I sold it. Even put the price on the sign in front of the house. Put tape over the old price, put the new price on the tape. Very low class selling job, but I got rid of it before prices hit bottom. The multi-millionaire property owner I sold it to defaulted on the payments, and the Resolution Trust got the house at the end of the decade. I was in NOLA and went by the house in 1997. There was a drunk boozing on the front steps with a pile of empties underneath the steps. Two foot weeds coming up through the sidewalk. The neighborhood was no longer "coming up". I was so glad I had decided to leave when I did. Ed.

To: Tommaso who wrote (11555)	9/9/2004 11:33:59 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Schaeffer on VIX schaeffersresearch.com

To: Tommaso who wrote (11555)	9/9/2004 12:10:32 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

U.S. July wholesale inventories up 1.3% - Thursday, September 9, 2004 3:43:39 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) - Inventories at U.S. wholesale dealers increased a seasonally adjusted 1.3 percent in July, including a record increase in petroleum inventories, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday Wholesale sales increased 0.5 percent in July. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.16 in July from 1.15 in June. The typical wholesaler had stocks to cover about 35 days of sales The inventory-to-sales ratio has risen three months in a row from a record low 1.12 in April. The recent buildup in inventories could be a welcome development for wholesalers who hadn't been able to keep up with strong demand earlier in the year. Or it could be unwanted stockpiling as wholesalers misjudged the slowdown in sales. Surveys of purchasing managers indicate inventories are still beneath desired levels "It is looking increasingly likely that some of the recent inventory accumulation is unintentional and that production growth will slow late this year or early next," said Aaron Smith, an economist with Economy.com In the past 12 months, sales have increased 13.8 percent while inventories are up 8.6 percent. The inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.21 a year ago Economists were expecting inventories to increase about 0.7 percent in July after June's 1.1 percent gain. Inventories should add to third-quarter GDP, said John Ryding, chief U.S. economist for Bear Stearns. In separate releases Thursday, the Labor Department said first-time claims for jobless benefits plunged by 44,000 to 319,000 last week, in part due to storm and holiday effects. Also, the Labor Department said import prices rose 1.7 percent petroleum and other raw material prices surged. With the data coming late, the wholesale inventory numbers are rarely of interest to financial markets. But economists need the numbers to fill in some blank spots in their models of U.S. gross domestic product growth Inventories of durable goods increased 1.3 percent while sales increased 0.5 percent. Auto inventories increased 2.3 percent while sales fell 2.6 percent The inventory-to-sales ratio for durables rose to 1.43 in July from 1.41 in June. Inventories of nondurable goods also increased 1.3 percent while sales rose 0.5 percent. Inventories of petroleum increased a record 21.2 percent The inventory-to-sales ratio for nondurables stayed at 0.89

To: Tommaso who wrote (11555)	9/9/2004 12:28:00 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. group says China currency peg violates trade rules Thursday, September 9, 2004 4:13:36 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) -- A coalition of American business firms has teamed up with dozens of labor unions and asked the White House to challenge China's currency peg as an unfair subsidy under international trade rules. Since 1994, China has pegged its currency at 8.3 yuan to the dollar, and the group, now known as the China Currency Coalition, is arguing that the level allows Chinese producers to sell their goods at below market value. The appeal is likely to fall on deaf ears, as four members of President Bush's cabinet said they would not accept such a petition when it was floated by an earlier group last spring. And the National Association of Manufacturers, which initially floated the idea last spring, called the move a "counterproductive" step ======================================================================== These same idiots will be screaming like pigs if and when China ever decides to float, because as I have said all along it will be at a time of China's choosing, not ours, it it will not be to our benefit when they do it. Mish