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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (145196)	9/9/2004 1:14:43 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

There cant be a united iraq without the sunni center of the country. So if the Falujans et al continue to resist, a two state solution + the basket case triangle is in the offing. Our analysts should be trying to make educated guesses on how this will work in terms of our interests. I dont think that it has to be a disaster at all and may be the best achievable solution if pacification of the sunni areas fails. Shiaa will get sistani and a possible al sadr sidekick role or insurgency. Iran and the US will have influence there. Kurds can certainly survive on their own and they need to reach a lt accomodation with the turks. We could help mediate that one. Sunni triangle becomes Lebanon but then who becomes syria? Where is Bagdad--is it part of shiaa state. What about the parts of the kurd homeland that are not currently within the kurd boundaries? Seems to me both get picked off by shiaa and kurds respectively. Of course such humiliation of the sunnis will provide bin laden with more recruits unless we can figure out a way to resolve the triangle prior to any split or later. Just some general ideas from me but experts need to be digging now, because that is what we may get. mike

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (145196)	9/9/2004 1:15:02 PM
From: one_less	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

"if the religious right was in total control of government? Then multiply that rigidity many times over in a nation that is devoutly Muslim. Now, is that "freedom?" Will that lead to "happy people that stand as a shining example?" Will they be western friendly?" It is very likely that the religious right would be empowered by such a government. Is that what is bothering you? I suspect so. You want liberty and justice as long as the religious right are subdued under you... (contradiction number 1). that is devoutly Muslim. Now, is that "freedom?" Sure. Unless you have a problem with devout Muslims having freedom to live as they please. "Will that lead to "happy people that stand as a shining example?" there are plenty of free people in my neighborhood who don't seem happy... what is your point? Happy people? When was that guaranteed to any of us... You a flower child? "Will they be western friendly? Hard to say. They would be a part of the global economic and cultural community which makes them more likely to engage in diplomacy. Now what kind of democracy of a majority of Shi'ite rule do you think the Sunnis will accept? How about the Kurds? The standing government is a representative coalition. We are shooting for something along those lines in the elected government. No gaurantees but we have done our best to lay that as a foundation on which the Iraqis can grow a government that will afford liberty and justice to their citizenry.