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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (68442)	9/9/2004 1:51:02 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 794396

Don't buy Morris's spin on polls. Or Rasmussen's popular vote tracking, though R. does do EC polling, too, which is the only one that matters. I'm certain it is the only figure that the candidates watch. The way to do it, IMO, is to poll a statistically significant number of voters in each state which represents its GOP/Dem/Indep split, then apply the results to Electoral College votes. Morris's logic is faulty--it seems he doesn't consider the party split to be properly evaluated. I'd use voter registrations, which are probably more reliable than anything else, instead of someone's notion that he or she is a Dem "today." After all, that person might change affiliations in a twinkle. Not so registered voters who claim a specific party affiliation.