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Technology Stocks : Full Disclosure Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kdavy who wrote (9295)	9/9/2004 11:11:03 PM
From: Nancy	Respond to of 13403

OT: <<If you remember from yester years (2001-2002), some of the big upside moves were made during the down slide.>> of course. the biggest one-day moves on comp all happened in the bear market years. bear market rallies are characteristic of very quick, sharp, and short-lived. After each such rally, mkt then moved lower than previous low. I sure hope we are not seeing this type of rally, as the implication of that is not that good. TXN has a somewhat reasonable valuation than ADI, LLTC or MXIM. They supposedly will make $1 to $1.2 next year, though it is helped by a much lower tax rate. SPX current p/e is between 15 and 17, so the premium on TXN at p/e 20, is not too high, versus multiples on ADI, LLTC & MXIM for that matter. Agree with you on AMD, though INTC may wage a price war to force AMD to cut price as well. ATML warned tonight. I remember ATML is in flash memory ? that is the other big part of AMD biz. ISIL also warned tonight. Along with NSM, there is some trouble in the lower end analog market. NSM is nothing but a trading vehicle. Even at current deeply corrected price, it is still more than 100% higher than March 2003! That is quite mind boggling. :-( I like LRCX as well. They are the only equipment guy who guided up both this qtr and the rest of the year. None of AMAT, NVLS, KLAC would even commit for current qtr other than a very ballpark figure. Your trading picks and range sound reasonable.

To: kdavy who wrote (9295)	9/9/2004 11:21:54 PM
From: Nancy	Respond to of 13403

OT: FWIW, all based on yesterday's closing prices. SOX up 5.37% SMH up 4.71% with the big help from TXN, but INTC a big drag. AMAT 3.80% NVLS 5.53% LRCX 6.15% KLAC 4.39% TXN 10.30% ADI 5.67% LLTC 3.22% MXIM 4.10% ALTR 5.52% so, basically SMH could take care of it. AMAT KLAC LLTC MXIM not only lagged SOX, but also SMH. so far, low end analog have all warned, NSM, ISIL, high end analog, only ADI warned, but found floor at under 32. I agree with you, am not comfortable with NSM either.