My observance is this is not true and wishful thinking by the left. I've said before that Kerry had 2 weeks to recover from Bush's convention and he would still have a chance to win. Thanks to Dan Blather, there is no hope, kerry's #'s will begin to plummet this week. Rather will be forced into retirement so that CBS can save an ounce of integrity. The Dem's will start to come up with a plan to replace Kerry within 2 weeks. I don't think the can get there from here.
Stick a fork in Kerry though, he's finished.
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Bush Maintains Lead Over Kerry, 52% to 41%, Poll Says (Update1)
Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President George W. Bush maintained his lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry with 52 percent support to 41 percent in a national survey of likely voters taken for Time magazine.
Independent candidate Ralph Nader received 3 percent backing in the poll of 857 likely voters taken from Sept. 7-9. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The election is Nov. 2.
``The voters' most decisive issue has continued to shift toward terrorism and away from the economy,'' Time said in a statement. In a survey of 1,013 registered voters, 26 percent said they considered terrorism the most important issue, up eight percentage points from August. The economy was the most important issue for 24 percent, down three percentage points from August, the magazine said.
``It's uphill for Kerry,'' said George W. Grayson, a professor of government at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, Virginia. ``It's possible Kerry can turn it around, but he's got to do it with pocketbook issues'' such as the economy and health care, he said.
A separate poll by Newsweek magazine showed Bush with 49 percent support, Kerry 43 percent and Nader with 2 percent. The survey of 1,003 registered voters on Sept. 9-10 has an error margin of 4 percentage points. A week ago, at the end of the Republican convention, Bush led with 52 percent to Kerry's 41 percent.
``Bush's bounce is slowing deflating,'' Newsweek said in a statement.
Changing Numbers
Bush's poll numbers have climbed since the Republican National Convention ended Sept. 2. Republicans focused on the war against terrorism at the convention and sought to portray Kerry as an indecisive candidate who voted to support the war in Iraq and oppose $87 billion to carry out combat operations.
Kerry responded by saying Bush failed to win a broad, worldwide coalition of support before stampeding into war with Iraq, and that the president's ``wrong choices'' have cost the U.S. $200 billion that would have been better spent on domestic security, health care, job creation and education.
The Time poll showed that Kerry, 60, a four-term senator from Massachusetts, held an advantage over Bush on handling health-care issues, 47 percent to 42 percent, though that's down from an 18-point advantage Kerry held on the issue last month, the magazine said.
Losing Support
Kerry is losing support among women. Last month, Kerry led Bush among women 50 percent to 36 percent. Now, Kerry is favored 44 percent to Bush's 45 percent. Males favor Bush 56 percent to Kerry's 34 percent.
Bush, 58, was favored over Kerry on the economy, fighting the war on terrorism, handling Iraq and performing his role as commander-in-chief, the Time survey showed. Bush held a six- point lead on the economy, 50 percent to 44 percent, reversing Kerry's lead of 51 percent to 42 percent last month.
Bush increased his lead on handling the war on terrorism to 58 percent compared with 35 percent for Kerry, up eight percentage points from August.
Of those surveyed, 56 percent approved of the way Bush is handling his job as president, up from 50 percent in August. Another 41 percent disapprove.
Lingering Doubts
There are lingering doubts about the months ahead, the Time survey suggested. Asked if the country is headed in the right direction, 46 percent said it is and 49 percent said the U.S. is on the wrong track.
The University of Virginia's Grayson said Kerry's campaign made a mistake by stressing war and peace and terrorism at the Democratic National Convention.
``There are two halves in a basketball court, and Kerry was playing in the wrong court,'' referring to foreign affairs issues, including terrorism, where he said Republicans tend to do better among voters. ``Democrats need to talk about jobs, and health care and Social Security.''
Time said its poll ``found no damage so far from the recently published allegations that Bush evaded duties while in the National Guard during the Vietnam War.''
The poll was taken before the allegations Wednesday by the Boston Globe that Bush twice failed to complete training assignments in 1972 and 1973. White House spokesman Scott McClellan said Bush completed his duties and was honorably discharged.
Newsweek said its survey shows voters are split over Bush's service in the National Guard. Forty-two percent said Bush did fulfill his obligations for military service and 42 percent said they have serious doubts about it.
National Guard Issue
Eighteen percent of those surveyed said the National Guard issue has made them less likely to vote for Bush in November, and 73 percent said it hasn't had much of an effect. Five percent said it would make them more likely to vote for him.
The Gallup Organization said its polling data, beginning in 1936, shows no presidential incumbent with at least a seven percentage point lead at Labor Day at the start of September has lost the election.
A review of state-by-state polls and historical voting data by Bloomberg News shows Bush ahead in 22 states, including Texas and Missouri, with 184 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 11 states, including New York and Oregon, with 161 electoral votes. In 17 states that have 193 electoral votes, including Pennsylvania and New Jersey, results of the most recent polls are within the margin of error. |
