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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: redfish who wrote (733)	9/12/2004 5:09:47 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Respond to of 26025

weather.com Grand Cayman experiencing the fury of Ivan 5:00 A.M. ET Sun.,Sep.12,2004 Tim Ballisty, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel Hurricane Ivan Bottom Line Extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph as of 11 p.m. ET Hurricane Warnings in effect for the Cayman Islands, and Cuba Residents along the Gulf Coast should carefully monitor the progress of Ivan. Ivan is a very powerful and deadly Category 4 hurricane as winds are sustained at 155 mph with even higher gusts. It is forecast to regain Category 5 status later on this morning. Late Friday night and during the morning hours of Saturday, the center of Ivan remained offshore as it paralleled the southern coastline of Jamaica. Even though the most powerful winds associated with Ivan bypassed the island, the hurricane still battered Jamaica. Reports from Jamaica report that rainfall was torrential and horizontal, the winds unleashed their destructive power, and ocean waves were as high as a two-story building. Extreme damage occurred over the southern half of the island. Reports of 5 deaths from flooding and trees falling on homes have been reported. Ivan is now ever-so-slowly churning towards the Cayman Islands (specifically Grand Cayman) early this morning. Late Saturday night, winds on Grand Cayman were gusting to 50 mph even with Ivan still 100 miles offshore however now surface weather observations have ceased. With Ivan now closing in, it is becoming apparent that the northern eyewall of Ivan will strike Grand Cayman. Very large, powerful, and battering waves have impacted the Caymans and will continue to do so all day. It is becoming clear that this will be a devastating blow to the Cayman Islands. Next in line, the powerful hurricane will approach western Cuba. Besides the destructive winds, the worry here along the vulnerable southern coast of Cuba will be the very substantial storm surge of 20 to 25 feet. Ivan will then enter the eastern Gulf, still as a major hurricane, Monday and Tuesday. With a shift in the projected path to the west, it is very important now that all interests in the northern to central Gulf of Mexico monitor this hurricane very closely. Thereafter, torrential rains and lingering winds could become a major story for the eastern quarter of the nation as the remains of an inland Ivan head northward mid to late week. The future path of Ivan is by no means set so keep it tuned to The Weather Channel for the latest updates. KJC

To: redfish who wrote (733)	9/12/2004 1:59:58 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Respond to of 26025

2:00 PM EDT Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 41a Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on September 12, 2004 ...Dangerous Hurricane Ivan lashes Grand Cayman... a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the rest of Cuba. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...as well as in the eastern Gulf of Mexico...should closely monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane. At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near latitude 19.2 north...longitude 82.1 west or about 60 miles... 95 km...west of Grand Cayman. Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph ...17 km/hr... and a turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours. On this track...the center of the hurricane is expected to pass near or over the western end of Cuba Monday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Ivan a strong category four on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours and Ivan could regain category five intensity. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km. The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb...27.20 inches. Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves... can be expected in portions of the Cayman Islands...depending on the exact track of Ivan. Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Cuba. Reports from ham radio operators and the Cayman meteorological service indicate that power is out throughout the island...numerous buildings have lost their roofs...water up to 2 feet deep covers the Airport runway...and water as high as 5 feet is flowing through many homes. Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life- threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan. Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...19.2 N... 82.1 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure... 922 mb. For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT. Forecaster Stewart GZ