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To: RealMuLan who wrote (53264)	9/12/2004 11:36:35 AM
From: gg cox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<<By conservative estimate, in China, there are 1,000 billionaires, 3 million millionaires, and 30 million middle-class people (defined by those who can afford to own a private car and a decent apartment (about the size of a regular house in the US)). And the middle-class people have been increasing, by estimate, 5 million/year.>> Google china millionaires,china billionaires.. chinadaily.com.cn forbes.com gg

To: RealMuLan who wrote (53264)	9/12/2004 11:48:21 AM
From: BubbaFred	Respond to of 74559

From the vibrations I got while I was there, I expect 50% of the population will achieve true middle class status by 2050. Them folks are innovative and energized. Too many people who start their daily work chores at 6AM and go home at 8 PM. Internal competition is extremely stiff and for one fatcat created today (and some will fail), there are 1,000,000 wanna be fatcats (and many will succeed). John Templeton saw the energy twenty years ago. Japan's and South Korea's accomplishments will be dwarfed by China's, by 2050 for certain.

To: RealMuLan who wrote (53264)	9/12/2004 2:17:15 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Respond to of 74559

The charms of living and working in a big city: 1. For transportation we can often or even usually use "Number 11 car" as they say in Shanghai dialect, which means the two legs. of else public transportation. 2. The best hospitals are there. 3. The good big libraries are there. 4. The lower cost of heating a city apartment as opposed to a separate country house. That's the future for most Chinese people and for most of the world. The high price of oil will force acceleration of this change. Most of us will never need cars. The city saves energy. Of course there are investment lessons in all this.

To: RealMuLan who wrote (53264)	9/12/2004 3:50:11 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<So what can make Roach consider China to have had consumer demand?> Roach is talking now, not 2050. Take US demand out of the picture and these Asian countries cannot survive without exports. The future is rosy but $1000 p.a. in earnings does not buy many $2,000 dinette sets that China sells around the world. Gasoline consumption is 1/10 the US on a per capita basis. Will Chinese pay the fat margins for their products that they sell outside China? That dinette set probably cost a few hundred to make and the domestic sales price in China would be a little over that.

To: RealMuLan who wrote (53264)	9/13/2004 2:38:38 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Yiwu - Most cars sold in Austraila, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Spain and many other countries are either made abroad or made in foreign owned plants. This is a long way from unprecedented. Swedens car industry started by assembling kits of foreign cars, Domestic manufacture such a Saab, developed later. China's choice of the FDI / tech transfer path has resulted in enormous rapid economic growth, and the vast majority of multinational corporations willing to lobby for trade policies favorable to China. Contrast with India, which pushed away, prohibited, over regulated and generally been unwelcome about FDI. Politcians feel pretty free to bash India about outsourcing. The present results speak for themselves. Or you can look at the extensive criticism from Indians contrasting Indias' policy with Chinas'. Let's say you are the CEO of a multinational consumer goods company, and 30% of your profits are due to the low costs and efficentcy of your China based factories, and another 15% due to the low cost sub assemblies for product assembled outside China. China may be only 5% of your end product demand, but that is growing 15% per year, and was a large part of your 5% worldwide revenue growth. Now who has colonized who ? And by the way, after getting a bunch of hassel from India, and demands on limiting ownership, and loads of other S*** where do you India will be on the list for new plants ? Yes they will get call centers and tech support and some R&D because they speak English, are bright, educated and cheap. But put $300 million USD into a power plant of car factory or semiconductor fab ? No way. I think it my be a bit early to start worrying about the hollowing out of industry in China...