Lynette Loony on HSDPA ...
Quotable Quotes which beats her tradititional "sorces say":
"It’s doable from an infrastructure standpoint [HSDPA meeting a mid-2005 goal], but we always seem to forget about handsets. To have perfect timing between infrastructure and handsets, where it has never been accomplished before, would set a new world record." Lars Nilsson, Ericsson -
"HSDPA is under a microscope. ... We believe this technology will face many operation and integration challenges like any other new technology." Brian Modoff, Deutsche Bank USA -
"While operators want HSDPA today, HSDPA is not technically feasible and probably won’t be feasible outside of Japan until 2006 or 2007. [Thelander’s research has led him to conclude that several of the key original equipment manufacturers will not have an internally developed HSDPA solution until mid-2006. Mobile chipsets may also be lacking. Qualcomm is the furthest along in its development stage, with plans to introduce its first HSDPA chipset by the end of the year, but it will only support up to 1.8 Mbps]. Qualcomm will need to deliver a more advanced HSDPA-enabled chip to attract the interest of an operator." - Michael Thelander, Signals Research Group LLC -
"The purpose of the RFP is to get side-by-side comparisons of timelines of various issues, one of which is HSDPA and its timeline for the 850 band. Our commitment to EDGE has not changed. ... We still see EDGE as being a high-speed technology that will meet most customer demands, and we are requiring EDGE to be the backup solution for a WCDMA/HSDPA environment where quality is not acceptable. We’re continuing to look at the business case in terms of how deeply to deploy [WCDMA/HSDPA]." - Kris Rinne, Cingular acting CTO -
Lynette Loony on HSDPA ...
Quotable quotes rather than her normal "sources say." ...
"It’s doable from an infrastructure standpoint [HSDPA meeting a mid-2005 goal], but we always seem to forget about handsets. To have perfect timing between infrastructure and handsets, where it has never been accomplished before, would set a new world record." Lars Nilsson, Ericsson -
"HSDPA is under a microscope. ... We believe this technology will face many operation and integration challenges like any other new technology." Brian Modoff, Deutsche Bank USA -
"While operators want HSDPA today, HSDPA is not technically feasible and probably won’t be feasible outside of Japan until 2006 or 2007. [Thelander’s research has led him to conclude that several of the key original equipment manufacturers will not have an internally developed HSDPA solution until mid-2006. Mobile chipsets may also be lacking. Qualcomm is the furthest along in its development stage, with plans to introduce its first HSDPA chipset by the end of the year, but it will only support up to 1.8 Mbps]. Qualcomm will need to deliver a more advanced HSDPA-enabled chip to attract the interest of an operator." - Michael Thelander, Signals Research Group LLC -
"The purpose of the RFP is to get side-by-side comparisons of timelines of various issues, one of which is HSDPA and its timeline for the 850 band. Our commitment to EDGE has not changed. ... We still see EDGE as being a high-speed technology that will meet most customer demands, and we are requiring EDGE to be the backup solution for a WCDMA/HSDPA environment where quality is not acceptable. We’re continuing to look at the business case in terms of how deeply to deploy [WCDMA/HSDPA]." - Kris Rinne, Cingular acting CTO -
Lynette's July article in its entirety ...
>> GSM Operators Need HSDPA to Grow Up Fast
Lynnette Luna
Broadband Edge
July 9, 2004
bbedge.mblast.com
The wireless high-speed data revolution sparked by CDMA 2000 1x EVDO technology and other emerging wireless broadband technologies has created a sense of urgency among global competing GSM operators who are in the midst of deploying third-generation WCDMA technology, say infrastructure vendors and industry analysts. Now the race is on to meet this competitive threat with a better version of WCDMA—and there’s not much time.
WCDMA barely left the starting gate when players such as Japan’s KDDI, SK Telecom and KT Freetel in Korea and Nextel Communications, Sprint PCS and Verizon Wireless in the United States emerged with service offerings that offer substantially faster data rates than today’s version of WCDMA, known as Release 99, which offers typical downlink data rates of 100 kilobits per second to EVDO’s 300 to 500 Kbps.
That has left WCDMA operators to pin their hopes on HSDPA (High Speed Downlink Packet Access), the next generation of WCDMA that promises downlink rates anywhere between 2 Megabits per second and 14.4 Mbps, and its market debut in mid-2005.
“There is a need to get HSDPA out in the market very quickly,” said Roger Derrien, vice president for UMTS product management with Lucent Technologies. “There is clearly a strong competitive pressure ... Release 99 is not able to compete in markets where you have EVDO.”
Nor can it compete with other emerging broadband technologies such as Flash-OFDM, which offers downlink speeds of 1.5 Mbps sustained, and TD-CDMA that offers speeds between 4.58 Mbps to 5.16 Mbps. Nextel Communications recently expanded its Flash-OFDM service in North Carolina to paying customers. TD-CDMA has gained momentum with entrepreneurial companies worldwide that are successfully competing for a share of the broadband market.
As a result, “HSDPA is under a microscope,” said Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Modoff in a recent report. The technology, standardized as Release 5, is a software upgrade to WCDMA base stations that not only promises theoretical peak downlink speeds of 14.4 Mbps, but increased capacity, a ten-fold improvement in spectral efficiency and support for Voice over IP (VoIP), leaving WCDMA operators clamoring for deployments. But analysts say the technology is hard-pressed to be commercially ready by mid-2005.
“We believe this technology will face many operation and integration challenges like any other new technology,” Modoff said.
Japan’s largest operator, NTT DoCoMo, pressured by competition from EVDO competitor KDDI, is investing $345 million to expedite commercial availability of HSDPA, and may be the only operator to deploy the technology by 2005. The carrier is already trialing HSDPA in its network.
“While operators want HSDPA today, HSDPA is not technically feasible and probably won’t be feasible outside of Japan until 2006 or 2007,” said Michael Thelander, chief executive officer with Signals Research Group LLC, a wireless telecommunications research and consulting company.
Thelander’s research has led him to conclude that several of the key original equipment manufacturers will not have an internally developed HSDPA solution until mid-2006. Mobile chipsets may also be lacking. Qualcomm is the furthest along in its development stage, with plans to introduce its first HSDPA chipset by the end of the year, but it will only support up to 1.8 Mbps, noted Thelander.
“Qualcomm will need to deliver a more advanced HSDPA-enabled chip to attract the interest of an operator,” said Thelander.
Infrastructure vendors claim HSDPA will meet the mid-2005 goal, but the gating factor will be handset availability. “It’s doable from an infrastructure standpoint, but we always seem to forget about handsets,” said Lars Nilsson, director of business strategy with Ericsson. “To have perfect timing between infrastructure and handsets, where it has never been accomplished before, would set a new world record.”
As a result, early deployments will support PC cards, but to achieve a broader uptake of services, an ample supply of devices is necessary. Handset availability has already crippled rollouts of WCDMA Release 99.
Ultimately, Cingular Wireless, set to become the largest wireless operator in the U.S. after its merger with AT&T Wireless is completed, could play a key role in how fast HSDPA comes to market. Sparked by competitive pressure stemming from announced EVDO rollouts from Verizon Wireless and Sprint PCS, Cingular announced it has issued a request for proposals to equipment vendors to develop and deliver UMTS and subsequently HSDPA. Cingular plans to begin UMTS/HSDPA trials in Atlanta this summer with Lucent with the intention of rolling out UMTS services in 2005.
Kris Rinne, acting chief technical officer with Cingular, said the carrier anticipates rolling out HSDPA in the second half of 2005, but many unanswered questions remain. “The purpose of the RFP is to get side-by-side comparisons of timelines of various issues, one of which is HSDPA and its timeline for the 850 band,” she said.
Cingular will likely be the first global operator to launch UMTS and HSDPA at the 850 MHz band, which presents testing challenges and other technical issues that could result in deployment delays. While HSDPA is a software upgrade, another level of interoperability between devices and the infrastructure will be required. In addition, Cingular has yet to determine critical decisions such as the network’s total cost and where it will deploy the technology, answers it hopes to glean from the RFP.
However, Cingular has downplayed any competitive urgency to deploy HSDPA, indicating its nationwide EDGE launch, set to be completed this summer in connection with its acquisition of AT&T Wireless, which already offers a nationwide EDGE network, would offer a solid solution until WCDMA is deployed. EDGE offers average throughput speeds of 100 Kbps.
“Our commitment to EDGE has not changed,” said Rinne. “We still see EDGE as being a high-speed technology that will meet most customer demands, and we are requiring EDGE to be the backup solution for a WCDMA/HSDPA environment where quality is not acceptable. We’re continuing to look at the business case in terms of how deeply to deploy [WCDMA/HSDPA].” <<
- Eric - |
