Flu’s sting likely to be milder, but doctors urge caution
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Lauren Stanforth
Staff writer
(September 19, 2004) — The upcoming flu season will likely not see the long clinic lines and vaccine shortages of last year. Vaccine manufacturers are now producing at record levels and experts say it’s going to be a milder season for the illness.
Vaccine manufacturers have upped their production from about 90 million doses last year to nearly 100 million this year. Severe seasons — such as last year’s — are typically followed by less severe seasons, said Dr. John Treanor, a University of Rochester professor of medicine, microbiology and immunology.
But the spread of the influenza virus and its different strains can be unpredictable. So to avoid the crush at public health clinics once the season is under way, some doctors advise calling your primary care physician to schedule a vaccination or find out when your doctor’s office will offer clinics.
Clinics are typically scheduled for October or November. It takes about two weeks after vaccination for antibodies to develop in the body and provide protection. Those at highest risk — toddlers, the elderly and health care workers — need to receive x shots before anyone else gets them.
“There should be adequate supplies this year, so we shouldn’t have to prioritize. But people need to customize it by talking to their own physician,” said Dr. Donald Goldman, an internal medicine specialist and president of the Monroe County Medical Society.
Influenza was more widespread floating around more in the United States between October and May than in other recent years. Indeed, the percentage of deaths from influenza and pneumonia this past season — 10.3 percent of all deaths — was the highest since 1999-2000, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The flu typically hits hardest between December and March.
The disease can come on suddenly and bring with it fever, intense fatigue and body aches — as well as coldlike symptoms such as sore throat and congestion. Influenza, a contagious virus that attacks the nose, throat and lungs, can keep people at home for up to two weeks. It also leads to about 114,000 hospitalizations a year in the United States, and 36,000 deaths.
Last season, increased media attention surrounding child deaths and early flu outbreaks in Colorado and Texas persuaded more people than usual to seek flu shots. By late November and December, when public concern about the flu outbreak was peaking, many physicians were either out of vaccine or had finished giving shots. More than 1,000 people showed up at a public clinic at Irondequoit Mall in January, and some people were turned away.
“Manufacturers told me that on the Monday before Thanksgiving (last year) they were looking at throwing away 5 million doses. By the Wednesday after Thanksgiving, they had none left,” said Dr. Nancy Bennett, Monroe County’s deputy health director. “It was just that Thanksgiving weekend media blitz that changed everything.”
An influenza vaccine has been available around since 1945, Treanor said. But flu shots weren’t widely used until the mid-1980s, when Medicare started covering the cost. Because of escalating health care costs and emergency room backups, the interest in prevention — and keeping people out of the hospital — is increasing.
“If you can prevent one person from being hospitalized with pneumonia or the flu, you’ve paid for a whole host of shots,” said Dr. David Newman, who has a family practice in Brockport. Those with the flu can be highly susceptible to contracting pneumonia.
“In the past we focused on high-risk people. Now we’re just focused on preventing the epidemic,” said Dr. Correne Wirt, a pediatrician in Brighton.
Nursing homes and other health care settings often give their residents shots.
Rochester’s largest businesses also offer flu shots to their employees, in part to help stem absenteeism.
Eastman Kodak Co., for example, dispenses 8,000 to 10,000 flu shots during clinics at work sites throughout the Rochester area; some of them are also open to Kodak employees’ family members and retirees. Kodak says said lost productivity has decreased about 30 percent because of it, according to Tom Smock, an occupational health nurse at Kodak.
Other employers, such as Wegmans Food Markets Inc., also provide flu shots for employees.
“When flu hits schools, you will see it in the industry about two weeks later,” Smock said. “There is a direct correlation between its occurrence in the community and its effect on the industry.”
Chiron Corp., one of two U.S. manufacturers of the vaccine, lost about 2 million of its 50 million doses because a small portion of the batch did not meet sterility specifications, according to Chiron. Because of further testing, Chiron’s portion of the U.S. vaccine supply might not be released until early October.
Nevertheless, many private practice doctors have said they expect to have plenty of vaccine — it just might be delivered a little later than usual.
Bennett said the Monroe County Adult Immunization Coalition, a group of area health care providers offering that offer about 75 public clinics a season, might have to prioritize who gets the vaccine if it shows up late. Public clinics serve about 50,000 people each flu season.
“I wish I could predict” what will happen this season, Bennett said.
“Will there be more demand because people will remember what happened last year? Or will people have already forgotten?”
LSTANFOR@DemocratandChronicle.com
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