To: Joe NYC who wrote (202257 ) 9/16/2004 3:11:47 AM From: tejek Respond to of 1572942 Kerry in a free fall: <font color=brown>Huh? May be you need to look again.......the convention bounce appears to be fading: <font color=black> ******************************************Bush-Kerry Race Tied As RNC Bounce Fades, New IBD Survey Shows Monday September 13, 7:00 pm ET Ibd Staff In IBD/TIPP's first poll of likely voters, conducted Sept. 7-12, both men garnered 47% in a two-man race and 46% in a three-way race. In the latter scenario, independent Ralph Nader would take just 3% of the vote.Among registered voters, Kerry holds a two-point edge over Bush, with or without Nader, the poll found. For polls taken after Labor Day, pollsters consider "likely voters" a more accurate indicator of actual election outcomes. IBD/TIPP defines likely voters as adult Americans who say they are very likely to vote in November, have a high level of interest in the presidential election and have voted in every or nearly every presidential election. Other polls show Bush ahead by four to 11 points. The latest Zogby and Fox/Opinion Dynamics polls give Bush a four-point lead. He has a five-point lead in an AP/Ipsos poll and 11 points in the latest Time magazine survey. "The boost Bush got during the RNC and the aura that surrounded an event marked by clever speeches and hitchless execution may be fading," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling partner. Meanwhile, fresh questions have arisen about Bush's Vietnam-era National Guard service, though questions also have been raised about the authenticity of documents critical of Bush. Also, U.S. casualties in Iraq have surpassed 1,000, a milestone played up by major media. And Kerry has sharpened his attacks against Bush on Iraq and the economy. While the candidates may be returning to a dead-even race, Bush still seems to have an edge. "In close elections such as this, the intensity of candidate support is of utmost importance," Mayur said. "Both Kerry and Bush have been successful in winning the allegiance of more and more of their respective party's traditional support base. However, the president has consistently drawn stronger support from his supporters than Sen. Kerry. "Past elections have shown intensity of candidate support strongly influences voter turnout," he said. IBD's poll shows Bush's intensity numbers are 25 percentage points above Kerry's 60%. While Bush has locked up his party's loyalty, Kerry still has room to improve. Ninety-four percent of Republicans support Bush, while 83% of Democrats back Kerry. Continued............biz.yahoo.com