Kerry losing women's support
chicagotribune.com
By Jeff Zeleny
Tribune national correspondent
Published September 16, 2004
COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Teresa Conway is hardly a by-the-book Republican.
Four years ago, she supported then-Vice President Al Gore. But since casting that Democratic ballot, she married, had two children and has gradually become a devoted supporter of President Bush. She doesn't mind parting ways with the Republican Party on abortion and gay rights, explaining: "We really can't get into those things until we are safe."
Of all the challenges that Democrat John Kerry faces in his presidential campaign, perhaps none is as critical as building a decisive advantage among women voters.
In the past month, the president has started whittling away at a gender gap that has long provided an essential lifeline to Democrats running for the White House. Less than seven weeks before Election Day, strategists from both parties say there are a growing number of suburban, independent-minded voters who believe Bush would do a better job securing America.
It's politically impossible for a Democrat to win the presidency without a strong majority of women. As the race tightens, Kerry is struggling to develop the double-digit margins that propelled the candidacies of Bill Clinton and even Gore.
"There are Sept. 10 people and Sept. 11 people and I'm a Sept. 11 person. It scared the life out of me," said Conway, 31. "I'm not one of those hard-core, all Republicans, all the time, but I don't believe there is another man alive that could run this country better with respect to our safety."
That is precisely the sentiment the Bush campaign is seeking to spread among married suburban women, who form the largest bloc of undecided voters. On a recent morning here, Conway drove from nearby London, Ohio, to hear Laura Bush deliver that message at the Clintonville Women's Club.
"I believe what's most important," the first lady told nearly 200 women, "is my husband's work to protect our country and to defeat terror around the world." In her travels, Laura Bush weaves the platform of strength and security into a digestible narrative that constantly reminds voters how the president responded to the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. She asks women audiences to have patience with the Iraq transformation, tells them more women serve in the White House than in any previous administration and gently insists her husband is better suited to protect their families.
"People want somebody who is really strong as their president," Laura Bush said in an interview.
One month ago, Kerry enjoyed a wide margin among women, leading the president by 14 points in a Time magazine poll. As Bush pulled ahead in several state and national polls after his convention, Kerry fell below the president among women voters by 1 point in the Time survey and clung to a narrow advantage in other polls.
Bush has enjoyed strong pluralities among men, continuing a long tradition of Republican strength. No Democratic presidential hopeful has won a majority of white male voters since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
"I think women, just like men, pick the candidate that they feel the most comfortable with. Obviously, no one is going to agree with every position -- that's just not the way it is," Laura Bush said at the end of a two-day trip through four states. "I think people make a choice that is more visceral. They like somebody because of how they feel like they can trust them."
Though both sides agree that the race remains fluid, even slight slippage among women voters sends an ominous warning to Democrats.
Elizabeth Edwards, the wife of Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards, said Republicans have done a sufficient job scaring Americans, particularly women voters whose top concern is protecting their families. She often arrives in cities the first lady has just visited, trying to urge women to "look behind the curtain" of what she calls misleading rhetoric by the Bush campaign.
"What they have generated is not a sense of security among women but a sense of fear of John Kerry," Edwards said in an interview. "You can't just say `W is for Women' and have that be the beginning and end of the conversation. Has he improved their lives? What has he done?"
With an overwhelming share of voters already seeming to have chosen their favorite candidate, Republicans and Democrats are spending considerable effort courting women voters. Strategists say the best way for Republicans to attract more women and narrow the gender gap is to appeal to married women because singles are more likely to support Kerry.
"Women in the United States feel personally vulnerable about the terrorism issue," said Sara Taylor, a deputy political strategist for the Bush campaign. "Women have a tendency to be moved by these issues."
In conversations with women this week in Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio, security was cited as one of the chief issues in the campaign. Several voters recall how they felt after the Sept. 11 attacks and the more recent school takeover in Russia.
"This is a different election," said Kathy Anderson, a 38-year-old mother of three from Des Moines. "It is so much more important than any other time because our safety is at stake."
Natalie Peck of Verona, Wis., who has two children, said: "Maybe it's a motherly instinct, but I think President Bush is stronger."
Mark Mellman, a pollster for the Kerry campaign, discounted the theory that security trumped other issues. He said women were more likely to be economically vulnerable than men and care more about the cost of health care, prescription drugs and education, all issues that he said favor Kerry.
Dianne Bystrom, a political scientist at Iowa State University, said Republicans had no guarantee that security would remain a pivotal issue. But there was no question, she said, that women would remain a prime target in the campaign.
"George Bush in 2000 probably didn't pay as much attention to women voters as he should have," said Bystrom, director of the school's Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics. "This year, he can make it up."
Q&As WITH 2 PROMINENT WOMEN
First Lady Laura Bush
Q. Do you worry about this election becoming a referendum on fear?
A. I don't think that's what it is at all. It's a reflection of what the times are.
Q. How can undecided voters be sure President Bush could keep them safer than John Kerry?
A. All they do know is what's happened so far. I think they see George's true responsibility that he feels to our country.
Q. Some Democrats say `W stands for Women' is sloganeering.
Is that true?
A. I would say that's absolutely wrong. There have been many, many accomplishments regarding women. There are more women in the White House than ever before.
Elizabeth Edwards, wife of candidate John Edwards:
Q. Why are Republicans gaining ground among women?
A. We have had a solid month of the Republican Party . . .
going after Sen. Kerry as unpatriotic and unfocused and undisciplined.
What they have generated is not a sense of security among women but a sense of fear of John Kerry.
Q. What do you think of the Bush campaign's outreach to women voters?
A. I read Laura Bush's stump speech. . . . They have to go all the way to Afghanistan to find something specific to women--the unveiling of women. But it took a terrorist attack to do that. Most women in Afghanistan are living pretty closely to how they were living before.
--an edited transcript of interviews by Jeff Zeleny |
