Buoyed by polls, Bush shows new confidence
By Judy Keen, USA TODAY
ROCHESTER, Minn. — In the unpredictable world of politics, leads in the polls and candidates' confidence can evaporate in an instant. But President Bush and his campaign advisers are feeling pretty good these days about his chances.
During a bus tour of Minnesota on Thursday, Bush exuded self-assurance. At a roundtable discussion on health care at a sports arena in Blaine, he prowled the stage with the sleeves of his blue shirt rolled up and a grin on his face.
At a rally in a baseball stadium in St. Cloud, he told the crowd, "I want to win. And I know we are going to win."
That's not just happy talk. A Gallup Poll released Thursday showed that Bush's confidence might be justified. Among likely voters, he has extended his lead over Sen. John Kerry to 13 percentage points. Bush's support grew despite Kerry's new strategy of aggressively challenging his economic record and the war in Iraq, and despite renewed media focus on Bush's military service during the Vietnam War. (Related item:Bush leads in new poll | Poll results
But a Pew Research Center Poll also out Thursday showed that the race is tied. Bush advisers believe he has established a 4- or 5-percentage-point lead nationally.
More important to the Bush campaign and the outcome of the election are recent polls in key states. Bush advisers say USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Polls this week showing Bush ahead in Wisconsin and tied in this state, which hasn't been won by a Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon in 1972, are signs that Bush is making inroads in states Kerry needs to win the election.
At the same time, Bush aides believe that he is ending Kerry's hopes of competing in several states Bush won in 2000: Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Arizona and Missouri.
The Bush team thinks it may even be able to make a run at Kerry in such traditionally Democratic territory as New Jersey, where first lady Laura Bush campaigned Thursday, and Illinois, which Vice President Cheney visits Saturday.
Bush aides are mindful of the volatility documented in the two conflicting national polls. Some of them worry that confidence can evolve into dangerous cockiness or invite bad luck. So they aren't crowing much in public. "This race is never going to be safe," said Matthew Dowd, the campaign's chief strategist. But he added that Bush seems to have momentum now.
Back in Washington, though, some campaign aides are talking to friends about the jobs they want after the election. And some are already talking about strategy for the congressional elections in 2006. Presidents' parties usually lose ground in such midterm elections.
Brad Coker, who works for the non-partisan Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, said that sort of musing is a dangerous sign. "If they get too cocky, they could get themselves into trouble," he said. "They need to resist the temptation to start celebrating early."
Bush isn't celebrating, but he's reveling in his daily interactions with voters — even though the people who attend his campaign rallies are supporters who must have tickets. "I like to get out amongst the people and tell them where I stand, what I believe," he said at another baseball park here.
When he uses a lectern, he grips its sides with both hands, leaning forward to emphasize his comments. When he roams a stage with a handheld microphone, he pivots to make eye contact with people on all sides. He's disarming and charming. Coaxing participants in a panel on health care in Blaine, Bush said, "Ready to crank it up? All right, let's go."
After panelist Jerry Markie, 71, explained that he's saving $4,200 a year by using a Medicare discount card for prescriptions, Bush asked him, "You can use that, can't you?"
"You betcha," Markie said.
"Take mom out to dinner more frequently," Bush advised.
"More than once," Markie said.
Bush was peppy when he popped into the Brick House Deli in Anoka, mugged for cameras with owner Angel Howell's 8-month-old daughter, Kate Lynn, and ordered an egg salad sandwich. "Fire one up," he said. He settled for chicken salad when he was told egg salad wasn't on the menu.
"You can see confidence in Bush's face," says Republican strategist Scott Reed, who managed Bob Dole's presidential campaign in 1996. "So much of the mood of a campaign is set by the candidate."
Nevertheless, the Bush-Cheney team's optimism may be tempered by memories of what happened four years ago. Two days before that election, political adviser Karl Rove predicted that Bush would defeat Democrat Al Gore in a landslide with 320 Electoral College votes. It didn't quite work out that way.
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