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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harold Engstrom who wrote (13039)9/17/2004 3:18:06 PM
From: Biomaven  Respond to of 52153
 
Can we give that pipeline more credibility now that Sanctura is being prescribed sucessfully?

Marginally. Really each drug stands on its own - if it's a dog then all the credibility in the world won't get it through the FDA and make it sell. I know there's an emotional tendency to think that if a company screwed up (succeeded) on one drug, they'll do the same on the next, but I suspect it's overrated, just the same way "streaks" are overrated in sports. There's some amount of plain luck in drug development, but I think we all have a natural tendency to downplay the part luck plays. And in fact the fen/phen disaster couldn't really have been foreseen as far as I know - there were certainly some initial safety concerns about dexfenfluramine, but none to my knowledge centered around cardiac issues at all. And their subsequent failure with bucindolol was also unlucky in my view - I don't think the company did anything wrong there at all.

Of course if a company lied to us the first time round, then it's a credibility issue that carries through until they redeem themselves, and their whole pipeline gets tainted. The old Interneuron was fairly dubious on that score, but they seem to have reformed in hte last few years.

I still hold my Indevus - not looking for a home run here, more a solid single with a chance of a bit more if anything in their pipeline comes through.

Peter



To: Harold Engstrom who wrote (13039)9/17/2004 3:51:10 PM
From: rkrw  Respond to of 52153
 
Would like to know the actual script #'s.

I think $250-350M 2 years out is well above what idev has publicly projected.

I do think we can assign their clinical team credibility given they've got two drugs approved. First pass approval for sanctura is impressive. They seem to be doing something right (fen fen and sanctura approvals).


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