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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (53489)	9/18/2004 6:55:33 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Jay how expensive oil will get before it starts getting cheaper and in the end left inside earths crust? Just note the amount of coal left inside earth's crust today. We have to keep the time perspective. The piece is pretty much expected by someone that live off oil. You wouldn't expect those guys creating a destruction, do you? But lets see how someone outside the oil business would picture the next 50 years. Lets start with today: Europe (east and west): past demographic window North America and Japan: past demographic window LATAM and China: within demographic window (will last until about 2020) S. East Asia: entering demographic (will last until about 2035) Africa/Middle East: no beginning of demographic window in sight. What does this have to do with oil? Everything. Once you enter the demographic window your money is not going in expansion just to accommodate people between 0 and 15 years old. Your next 20 years will be marked by money going into 'accommodating your girl, by the way. Things get more interesting once a country enters the demographic window, there's money left since all that money going into expansion, (couples buying houses to live in with families, fitting in them with the necessary stuff and governments investing tax payers money to expand schools and medical facilities) Once the amount of kids stop taking their toll in everyone's wallet, there is a window, before the number of oldies start getting higher than the number of younger above 15 years old. The window has closed in: Europe east and west, Japan and N. America. Growth is where in the world there's a demographic window. LATAM, China and India. (To be continued after I refill my cup and chack if that girl who will take some 12 years more to get into demographic window is eating her toast)

To: TobagoJack who wrote (53489)	9/18/2004 7:20:58 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Why an oilman has to tell us that: "Oil is not going away"? msnbc.msn.com This should be obvious, shouldn't it? I think he has to tell that to the people who lived off North Sea oil that is vanishing. Europe once they got inside their demographic window, they got rid of muscle power and shifted to coal. Muscle was left idle. Once North America and Japan got inside their demographic window, they got rid of coal power and shifted to oil. Coal was left idle inside earth's crust. For the past 1o to 15 years, China, S. East Asian and LATAM are in demographic window mood, they're going to get rid of oil power and shifted to alternatives. Oil will be left idle inside earth's crust. Oil can't provide amount of energy to propel, China, LATAM, S. East Asia and India. The beauty is that those countries don't have the oil vested interests North America and Europe have. They don't have the force projection to control oil sources. That costs to much! With that money, they can develop alternatives. Two important factors points to a different energuy matrix: 1) The amount fo people getting into their demographic window is that they are not too far from the Equator. Granted, parts of China are very cold, but the bulk of the people are in warm zones. 2) They are within the Green Belt. And the Green Belt is struck by a lot of sun light and sun light, can be used to grow trees. I will continue...