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Non-Tech : Marchex, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: playavermont who wrote (57)	9/24/2004 10:01:13 AM
From: playavermont	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 159

Assuming $75 Million in 2005 revenues. Assuming $9 Million in 2005 operating profit. At $12 per share their current 2005 PROJECTED ratios: Price to Sales: 4 Price to Book: 6 P/E: 33 The ratios based on TRAILING 12 months are: Price to sales: 10 Price to Book: 10+/- P/E: 100 +/- As you can see the market is looking ahead. Based on the trailing ratios a case could be made that it is a $6 or $7 stock. BUT, looking out one year the case could be made that it is worth a MINIMUM of $12 in 2005. In one year the market MAY be looking at a possible $135+ Million revenue company in 2006. At that time Marchex will most likely have a greater following, a longer track record, etc. An expansion of the ratios would most likely be in order (depending on the overall market conditions at the time). Thus, in September/October of 2005 - projecting out to 2006 a $135 Million revenue company with $25 Million in operating profits (18% operating margins): Price to sales of 6 Price to book of 8 P/E of 40 Assuming 35 to 38 Million shares outstanding these ratios would mean a stock price of $22 to $28 per share in one year.

To: playavermont who wrote (57)	3/28/2005 10:55:14 AM
From: playavermont	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 159

It has been six months since the "upgrade" on Septmber 19th. Fair value was pegged at $12 to $18 looking out thru Spring 2005. Time for an update. MCHX has traded between $11.80 and $24.91 since that post. They have made a major acquisition as well as executed a major financing. This has left them with over $90 Million in cash on the balance sheet versus the $24 Million +/- in late September. Marchex has increased their long term operating margin target from 20%+ to 30%+. All positive developments. Overall momentum seems to be building. As noted in the past the stock market is a forward looking machine. The steady move to the internet as a major marketing venue continues to build. Marchex has quickly moved to gain a significant portion of the internet "real estate". Going forward the plan is to leverage these assets accordingly. These were comments from September: <<My estimate for fair value is based upon the following. A minimum of $75 Million in 2005 revenues. This is based upon the comment in last quarters earnings report that they expect "acceleration of sequential growth rates of our revenue". Also, "subsequent expansion of adjusted operating income" 12% operating margins for 2005? Fair value $12 to $18 for the foreseeable future. Barring any major market upsets.>> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - New comments: My estimate for fair value is based upon the following. A minimum of $94 Million in 2005 revenues. 28% operating margins for 2005? Fair value $21 to $35 for the foreseeable future. Barring any major market upsets. Depending on the overall market Marchex is VERY undervalued at these levels in my opinion. Any pricing below $20 is considered to be a STRONG ACCUMULATION opportunity. The current pricing in the $17's is considered to be the weakest FAIR VALUE pricing of MCHX since last August. Just my opinion only. Do not rely on anybody for your decisions.