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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (49329)	9/20/2004 9:44:36 AM
From: redfish	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 81568

I think Kerry has gotten the message from his constituency that we want him to fight like the devil for the rest of the election. On polls: "There are seven new polls today. In Florida Bush's lead has dropped to 1%. But the strangest result is in New Hampshire, where the Rasmussen 7-day tracking poll puts Kerry ahead by 6% again. The Mason-Dixon poll of Sept. 13-15 giving Bush a 9% lead was just way off. A 15% change in two days in a small homogeneous state in the absence of any major news is unthinkable. Many new polls are due out today. I might put out a supplementary map late in the afternoon (Eastern time) if I have the time, but I will have everything tomorrow morning. Please DON'T send me mail telling me about the new polls; I know where to find them. Thanks. If you missed Saturday's update you might want to check it out as there was a long discussion of polling accuracy there. There was a bit more on Sunday. A summary of that material is now on the Articles and books page. On the subject of polling accuracy, many people have asked me how well the final election 2000 polls did. After a great deal of effort, I was able to find 15 polls taken in the final 3 weeks before the Nov. 7, 2000 election. They are listed below (and also on the More data page for future reference. The bottom line is that Zogby and CBS were the only ones that predicted that Gore would win the popular vote, and CBS can't gloat too much because although its Nov. 4-6 poll was right on the money, its Nov. 1-4 poll predicted a 5% margin for Bush. In reality, Gore won by half a million votes or 0.5%. Harris and Opinion Dynamics predicted ties and the other 11 predicted Bush would win the popular vote with margins ranging from 2% to 6%. I have not found any polls predicting the electoral vote the way this site does. For that reason, I may just keep this site alive until Nov. 2008 so there will be better historical data available next time." electoral-vote.com [the website has a chart showing how the various polls called it last go around]

To: stockman_scott who wrote (49329)	9/20/2004 11:29:09 AM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81568

Kerry's speech on Iraq was brilliant and hard-hitting. Kerry decimated Bush on Iraq and the war on terror, pointing out his massive blunders and dishonesty. If you saw Kerry's speech, you will never again criticize Kerry's stance on Iraq, clarity on it, plan on it or the clear difference between he and Bush. Competence aod honesty in Kerry's case, deceit and ineptitude in Bush's case. Bush has failed us in Iraq. But fortunately we can replace him in a few months. The choice is clear, Kerry is someone who will do the right thing. Bush has already done the wrong thing.