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To: maceng2 who wrote (638)	9/20/2004 3:01:52 PM
From: maceng2	Respond to of 1417

No Recession in 2005, Gartner Masterminds Panel Says reed-electronics.com By Suzanne Deffree -- Electronic News, 9/15/2004 SAN FRANCISCO -- 2005 will be a correction year, not a recession year. That was the determination of Gartner's Semiconductor Masterminds Panel, featuring some of the top brass from Intel, STMicroelectronics, Samsung, Nokia and headed by Mentor Graphics CEO Wally Rhines. "I don't see ahead of us something like the [recent] downturn," Jean-Philippe Dauvin, chief economist at ST, told the audience at the closing of the Gartner Dataquest Semiconductor Industry Summit Tuesday. "2005 will be a correction year, not a downturn, leading to positive growth." Similar comments were made across the board, with Samsung Executive VP Jon Kang going so far as to predict the consumer electronics giant will hit new heights this year. "2004 is going to be a super year. Memory is going up 40 percent; NAND flash is going to double. Samsung will probably have record profits and record revenue." Nokia, which plays against Samsung in the handset space, also noted a positive attitude as Timo Poilolainen, VP of technology marketing, reminded the audience the company stated last week that it expects to exceed its original Q3 guidance based on volume sales. Still, the panel noted that some uneasiness from the 2001 crash lingers in the industry. Gartner Group VP and Fellow Martin Reynolds warned that Wall Street continues to have issues with the tech sector, while Intel CTO Pat Gelsinger admitted that the back-to-school PC season wasn't what it could have been. "Back-to-school is back-to-school. But we revised our forecast from the high end of expectations to the low end on seasonality. It wasn't the back-to-school we expected, but we continue to see some strengths in geographic markets." Despite the few obstacles, the panel held true to its beliefs that next year will be a correction year, positioning the industry for growth, as far as they could foresee. "If 2005 is going to be like 2001 or 1996, it is probably based on factors nobody knows is going to happen," Kang said, noting tragic events that have affected the industry like September 11 or the SARS virus' affects on the Asia-Pacific region.