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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: philv who wrote (12087)	9/22/2004 12:07:01 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Germany has a big trust into wind and solar power not sure if it will be enough to replace the nuclear power. Are you familiar with the very small self-contained nuclear reactors - forgot their name but the energy is derived differently from the reactors we are familiar with

To: philv who wrote (12087)	9/22/2004 12:54:11 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Heinz on peak oil Date: Wed Sep 22 2004 12:15 trotsky (crude oil) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved going bonkers again. note: should the recent all time highs be bested, the next reasonable target is approximately $60 bbl. - this is according to my old target study based on fibo relationships of the previous behavior of prices. my initial target was $45, but since the market has now blown past 45 TWICE i'm beginning to think my long term target may come into view earlier than i thought possible ( 2 years ago i believed that $60 would only become viable once the global Hubbert peak became widely known as having occurred. there is to date no incontrovertible proof that it HAS occurred, and even Campbell thinks 2005 is the peak year. i assumed a more optimistic 2007-2010 originally, but have become doubtful. the reson is that only ONE producing area has actually seen significant output growth in recent years, and that's the FSU - short for 'former Soviet Union'. it is not known how much more growth can be expected from the FSU regions, since Russia treats known reserves as a state secret. but it IS known that several major producing regions HAVE peaked. my preliminary conclusion is that we have enterd a plateau period, during which output growth levels out for a few years, with some regions - FSU and West Africa - still growing, while most others begin their decline ) .

To: philv who wrote (12087)	9/22/2004 1:04:09 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

THE SHORT VIEW MARKET COMMENT BY Philip Coggan By Philip Coggan Published: September 22 2004 03:00 \| Last updated: September 22 2004 03:00 Three steps and a stumble is a traditional Wall Street adage. It states that when the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the third time, the equity market often hits trouble. Whether the rule will apply this time is harder to tell. For this is not a normal tightening cycle. Normally the Fed starts to act when inflationary pressures emerge, and higher rates then clamp down on economic activity. This time round, the Fed has kept interest rates very low for a long time in order to head off deflationary pressures. Yesterday's quarter percentage point increase in its primary rate to 1.75 per cent was part of the process of returning short rates to more neutral levels. Despite some recent weak economic data (notably June and July's non-farm payrolls), the Fed has expressed confidence in the health of the US recovery. Thus, it would have looked very odd had it not raised rates. And those who thought, earlier in the year, that the US central bank would be constrained by the approach of the presidential election have been proved wrong. But the markets seem to have changed their views about how far the Fed will go in tightening policy. At the end of June, just as the Fed raised rates for the first time, the eurodollar futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was suggesting short rates would be 4.75 per cent by the end of 2006. Now the contract is looking for rates of just 3.75 per cent on that date. Bond markets have clearly come to believe that the tightening cycle will be limited in scope. Ten-year Treasury bond yields were 4.7 per cent at the end of June. At the start of trading yesterday they were less than 4.1 per cent. That is a very unusual drop for the start of a tightening cycle. Merrill Lynch has changed its view and is now expecting Fed funds to peak at 2 per cent and remain at that level for the whole of 2005. But this might not be good news for investors. "The market has not begun to discount the kind of economic disappointment needed to stop the Fed from normalising monetary policy," writes David Bowers, Merrill's strategist. "What kind of economy loses momentum before short-term interest rates have barely got to 2 per cent?" news.ft.com