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Politics : Just the Facts, Ma'am: A Compendium of Liberal Fiction -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (17371)	9/22/2004 6:00:13 PM
From: Orcastraiter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90947

My vote cancels yours. I thought you we're in California. I'm moving to Florida where my vote will really count! Orca

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (17371)	9/22/2004 6:22:44 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90947

Actually, electoral-vote.com gave Bush a 327-211 lead just two days ago. Also, I guess orca missed it, but there was a similar sharp swing back to effectively tied from a big Bush lead just a couple weeks ago that was quickly reversed. It seems to depend on which pollster's numbers are the freshest as the site just takes the latest published numbers for each state. When a batch of Zogby or Rasmussen numbers come in, Kerry gains. BTW, the "projected final map" at that site, which is based on polling trends in each state, gives Bush a 330-192 margin (they have Arkansas, with 6 EC votes, exactly tied). You might also be interested in another site that isn't as volatile - presidentelect.org They don't update every day (was monthly until this month), so obviously they can't bounce around like electoral-vote.com, but they also don't just take whatever the latest available polls say and apply it. They have their own proprietary model, apparently, that factors in historical trends and other information they have found helpful. I don't know what their track record is, though. Anyway, they also give the nod to Bush, 305-233, up from 274-264 the prior two months running.