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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (18924)	9/23/2004 10:54:39 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

I think he clearly and succinctly presents the case about who the buyers of USD bonds are: mostly Asian central banks manipulating their currencies, and Fed cronies riding their coattails (convexity trades mostly now). It's an historic maladjusted situation. On the agency front here's a site that gives the spreads. I will add to the lab tools section in my thread header. gcm.com Unfortunately when you click the calendar they don't give historical data, just the current pricing. I don't think the spread has changed much with the FNM news though, note the longer dates (favored by Asian CBs) are trading at 43-47 bps spreads. This just supports my (and Saville's) case that the buyers (once again central banks) just don't care. They aren't in it for investment purposes, but only to manipulate, control, and prevent a USD collapse against their local currencies. The linkage here isn't what the CNBC's of the world are reporting. The "buyers" aren't coming in because the economy is crapping AND inflation is low. The buyers are there because the USD is weakening (in part from economic weakness), thus they need to manipulate the forex market, and inflation be damned. Therefore an incredible false signal is being generated. The piece from Dave Lewis I posted yesterday also seems to be in play. This latest raft of Asian money printing is leaking into real goods and commodities again. Message 20554602